Forecasting Model of GHG Emission in Manufacturing Sectors of Thailand

• Autorzy: Sutthichaimethee P. , Ariyasajjakorn D.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.12911/22998993/64566

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of this study is to analyze the modeling and forecasting the GHG emission of energy consumption in manufacturing sectors. The scope of the study is to analyse energy consumption and forecasting GHG emission of energy consumption for the next 10 years (2016-2025) and 25 years (2016-2040) by using ARIMAX model from the Input-output table of Thailand. The result shows that iron and steel has the highest value of energy consumption and followed by cement, fluorite, air transport, road freight transport, hotels and places of loading, coal and lignite, petrochemical products, other manufacturing, road passenger transport, respectively. The prediction results show that these models are effective in forecasting by measured by using RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. The results forecast of each model is as follows: 1) Model 1 (2,1,1) shows that GHG emission will be increasing steadily and increasing at 25.17% by the year 2025 in comparison to 2016. 2) Model 2 (2,1,2) shows that GHG emission will be rising steadily and increasing at 41.51% by the year 2040 in comparison to 2016.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

manufacturing sectors; environment cost; energy consumption; GHG emission; multiplier

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej ; Lublin University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Journal of Ecological Engineering
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 18, nr 1
• Strony: 18--24
• Opis fizyczny: BIbliogr. 23 poz., tab., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Sutthichaimethee P.

• Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand

autor

Ariyasajjakorn D.

• Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand

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Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).