Improving predictions of the Estimate at Completion using the classic Earned Value input

• Autorzy: Starczyk-Kołbyk Anna

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/ace.2024.151892

Warianty tytułu

PL

Udoskonalanie oszacowania ostatecznych kosztów przy użyciu metody wartości wypracowanej

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article investigates the author’s method of estimating the final cost of a construction investment. A list of proposed methods of calculating the value of the planned final cost of the EAC investment available in the world literature was used. The modification consisted in the first place in the verification and elimination of formulas that do not match the use in construction projects and the combination of formulas resulting in the same result. The study was aimed at enabling the right choice of the method of estimating the final cost of construction investments and determining the accuracy of this estimate. It should be emphasized that the analyzed investments were annexed many times during their implementation. On the basis of the obtained results of research carried out on real construction investments, it was found that 3 methods best predict the final cost of the investment. Finally, improvements were introduced, which were analyzed, the final effect of the article is a proposal of an original, universal formula, which in each of the analyzed construction investments, regardless of the trends, deviations from the cost at the time of the inspection, forecasts the most accurate result, consistent with reality. The conducted research gives the possibility of more effective financial management of a construction investment using the corrected EAC formula in EVM method.

PL

W artykule zbadano autorską metodę szacowania ostatecznego kosztu końcowego inwestycji budowlanej. Wykorzystano listę proponowanych metod obliczania wartości ostatecznego kosztu końcowego inwestycji EAC dostępną w literaturze światowej. Modyfikacja polegała przede wszystkim na weryfikacji i eliminacji formuł nieprzystających do zastosowania w inwestycjach budowlanych oraz łączeniu formuł dającym ten sam wynik. Celem badania było umożliwienie właściwego wyboru metody szacowania ostatecznego kosztu inwestycji budowlanych oraz określenie trafności tego oszacowania. Należy podkreślić, że analizowane inwestycje były wielokrotnie aneksowane w trakcie ich realizacji. Na podstawie uzyskanych wyników badań przeprowadzonych na rzeczywistych inwestycjach budowlanych stwierdzono, że 3 metody najlepiej przewidują ostateczny koszt końcowy inwestycji. Ostatecznie wprowadzono ulepszenia, które poddano analizie, efektem końcowym artykułu jest propozycja oryginalnej, uniwersalnej formuły, która w każdej z analizowanych inwestycji budowlanych, niezależnie od trendów, odchyleń od kosztów w momencie kontroli, prognozuje najdokładniejszy wynik, zgodny z rzeczywistością. Przeprowadzone badania dają możliwość efektywniejszego zarządzania finansami inwestycji budowlanej przy wykorzystaniu skorygowanej formuły EAC w metodzie EVM.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

investment management; final cost; forecast; building disturbance; earned value management method; EAC formula

PL

zarządzanie inwestycją; prognoza; koszt końcowy; zakłócenie budowlane; metoda wartości wypracowanej; formuła EAC

• Wydawca: Komitet Inżynierii Lądowej i Wodnej PAN ; Politechnika Warszawska, Wydział Inżynierii Lądowej
• Czasopismo: Archives of Civil Engineering
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Vol. 70, nr 4
• Strony: 271--289
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 32 poz., il., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Starczyk-Kołbyk Anna

• Military University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5448-7366

Bibliografia

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