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Sovereign Rating Analysis through the Dominance-Based Rough Set Approach

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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The classifications of risk made by international rating agencies aim at guiding investors when it comes to the capacity and disposition of the evaluated countries to honor their public debt commitments. In this study, the analysis of economic variables of sovereign rating, in a context of vagueness and uncertainty, leads the inference of patterns (multi-criteria rules) by following the Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA). The discovery of patterns in data may be useful for subsidizing foreign investment decisions in countries; and this knowledge base may be used in rule-based expert systems (learning from training examples).The present study seeks to complement the analysis produced by an international credit rating agency, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), for the year 2018.
Rocznik
Strony
3--16
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr 26 poz., tab.
Twórcy
  • BNDES, Av. Chile, 100, 15th floor, 20391-000, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  • Ibmec School of Business and Economics, Av. Presidente Wilson, 118, Office # 1110, 20030-020, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Bibliografia
  • [1] Błaszczyński, J., Greco, S., Matarazzo, B., Słowiński, R., Szelag, M., jMAF - Dominance-based Rough Set Data Analysis Framework. Chapter 5 [In]: A. Skowron, Z. Suraj (Eds.), Rough Sets and Intelligent Systems - Professor Zdzisław Pawlak in Memoriam, Volume 1, Intelligent Systems Reference Library, vol. 42. Springer, 2013, pp. 185-209.
  • [2] Cantor, R., Packer, F., 1996, Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, New York, 2, 2, pp. 37-54.
  • [3] Diniz, T., Amaral, H., Ferreira, B., 2012. Evaluation of sovereign risk: the impact of economic, political and social variables, Global Economy and Management, 17, 3, pp. 9-31.
  • [4] Frascaroli, B.F., Oliveira, J.C.T., 2013. Sovereign risk ratings and the macroeconomical foundations of countries: a study based on panel data, IX Meeting of Bahia’s Economy, Financing and Development, pp. 769-785.
  • [5] Frascaroli, B.F., Silva, L.C., Filho, O.C.S., 2009. Sovereign risk ratings and the macroeconomical foundations of countries: a study using neural artificial networks, Brazilian Journal of Finance, 7.1.
  • [6] Gomes, L.F.A.M, Gomes, C.F.S., 2019. Principles and methods for decision making: Multicriteria approach. 6th ed., GEN/Atlas, São Paulo.
  • [7] Gouvêa, M.A., Gonęalves, E.B., Mantovani, D.M.N., 2013. Credit risk analysis with the application of logistic regression and neural networks, Journal of Reviewed and Commented Accounting, 24, 4, pp. 96-123.
  • [8] Greco, S., Matarazzo, B., Slowinski, R., 2001. Rough Sets Theory for Multicriteria Decision Analysis, European Journal of Operational Research, 129 (1), pp. 1-47.
  • [9] Minussi, J.A. , Damacena, C., Ness Jr., W.L., 2002. A bankruptcy forecasting model using logistic regression, RAC, 6, 3, pp. 109-128.
  • [10] Pawlak, Z., 1982. Rough sets, International Journal of Information & Computer Sciences, 11, pp. 341-356.
  • [11] Pawlak, Z., 1991. Rough sets, Theoretical aspects of reasoning about data, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
  • [12] Pawlak, Z., 2000. Rough sets and decision analysis, INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research, 38 (2), 132-144.
  • [13] Pawlak, Z., 2002a. Rough set theory and its applications, Journal of Telecommunicatios and Information Technology, 3, 7-10.
  • [14] Pawlak, Z., 2002b. Rough sets, decision algorithms and Bayes’ theorem, European Journal of Operational Research, 136, pp. 181-189.
  • [15] Pawlak, Z., Grzymala-Busse, J., Slowinski, R., Ziarko, W., 1995. Rough sets, Communications of the ACM, 38, 11, pp. 89-95.
  • [16] Pawlak, Z., Slowinski, R., 1994. Rough set approach to multi-attribute decision analysis, European Journal of Operational Research, Invited Review, 72, pp. 443-459.
  • [17] Rossi Jr., J.L., Vasconcelos, L., 2007. Determinants of countries’ risk classification, Journal of Economics and Management, 6, 2, pp. 236-256.
  • [18] Selau, L.P.R., Ribeiro, J.L.D., 2009. A systematics for building and choosing credit risk forecasting models, Management & Production, 16, 3, pp. 398-413.
  • [19] Silva, D.F.L., Silva, L.G.O., Ferreira, L., Filho, A.T.A., 2017, Risk management in sovereign titles: implementation of a multi-criteria classification model, XLIX Brazilian Symposium on Operational Research, pp. 296-306.
  • [20] Słowiński, R., Greco, S., Matarazzo, B., 2012. Rough set and rule-based multicriteria decision aiding, Operations Research, 32, 2, pp. 213-269.
  • [21] Soares, G.O.G., Coutinho, E.S., Camargos, M.A., 2012. Determinants of Credit Risk of Brazilian Companies, Journal of Reviewed and Commented Accounting, 23, 3, pp. 109-143.
  • [22] Standard & Poor’s. http://www.spratings.com/sri/, 2019 (accessed 26 April 2019).
  • [23] Standard & Poor’s. Corporate ratings criteria. http://regulationbodyofknowledge.org/ wp-content/uploads/2013/03/StandardAndPoors_Corporate_Ratings_Criteria.pdf, 2013 (accessed 30 April 2019).
  • [24] Standard & Poor’s. Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions. http://www.concertedaction.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Standard-Poors- Sovereign-Government-Rating-And-Methodology.pdf, 2011 (accessed 14 February 2016).
  • [25] Widz, S., Ślęzak, D., 2012. Rough Set Based Decision Support — Models Easy to Interpret. In: Peters G., Lingras P., Ślęzak D., Yao Y. (eds) Rough Sets: Selected Methods and Applications in Management and Engineering. Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing. Springer, London, pp. 95-112.
  • [26] Zadeh, L.A., 1965. Fuzzy sets, Information and Control, 8, pp. 338-353.
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-80b2bbb3-b403-4c0f-b9de-55dc16ceb014
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