Przewidywanie jako metoda zapobiegania stanom zagrożeń komunikacyjnych

• Autorzy: Barczak A.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Forecasting as a method for preventing emergency situations in transportation

• Konferencja: XI Międzynarodowa Konferencja Naukowa EURO-TRANS 2012 pt.: „Europejska przestrzeń transportu - koncepcja i rzeczywistość”; 24-25.09.2012; Szczecin; Polska
• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

W referacie uzasadniono tezę, że to nie pojedynczy uczestnik ruchu drogowego jest „winien” powstawania zagrożeń komunikacyjnych, lecz są one powodowane zależnościami między elementami systemu komunikacyjnego, a przede wszystkim relacjami pomiędzy kierującymi pojazdami. Do modelowania stochastycznych zależności zastosowano sieci bayesowskie. Pokazano możliwości i zalety zastosowania formalizmu teorii gier jako modelu badania relacji między uczestnikami ruchu drogowego w projektowaniu procesów zapobiegania stanom zagrożeń komunikacyjnych. Podkreślono konieczność opracowania modelu działania kierowcy i innych użytkowników dróg komunikacyjnych z uwzględnieniem ich cech psychologicznych oraz aspektów socjalnych. Praca stanowi etap rozpoznania problematyki zastosowania teorii gier w badaniach bezpieczeństwa w transporcie drogowym z uwzględnieniem niepełnych danych i niepewnych informacji.

EN

In this paper, the postulate was validated that it is not just one person responsible for the traffic accident but the interdependence between all elements of the traffic process, with the emphasis placed on the drivers interactions. Stochastic interrelations were modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks. The possibility of application of the game theory as a tool for modeling interactions between drivers was appointed and the advantages obtained in the domain of the road safety management were indicated. The need for the development of the model comprising drivers interactions not only in the physical (vehicles) dimension but also in the psychological and social dimensions was expressed. This paper is a first step towards the application of the game theory in the research of the safety management in the road transportation, especially taking account of cases where the available information is partially missing and uncertain.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

transport drogowy; bezpieczeństwo; zagrożenia komunikacyjne; modelowanie stochastyczne; sieci bayesowskie

EN

road transport; safety management; stochastic modeling; Bayesian belief networks

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe. Problemy Transportu i Logistyki / Uniwersytet Szczeciński
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: Nr 19
• Strony: 7--18
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 24 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Barczak A.

• Politechnika Poznańska, Instytut Silników Spalinowych i Transportu

Bibliografia

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