Short Term Electricity Demand Forecasting of an Isolated Area using Two Different Approach

• Autorzy: Islam A. , Hasib S. R. , Islam M. S.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Electricity demand forecasting of an off-grid area, where no previous load data is available, is an important prerequisite for power system expansion planning. Bangladesh is a small as well as densely populated country in South Asia with a large portion of the population living under poverty line. About 48.5% of the total population has access in grid electricity. Uninterruptable power supply is one of the most important parameter for future development which ends up with a decision of obvious expansion of present grid coverage. This paper represents an analysis to forecast the electricity demand of an isolated island in Bangladesh where past history of electrical load demand is not available. The analysis is based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth of an area depends. The forecasting has been done through inverse matrix calculation and linear regression analysis method. It has been found that the demand data, calculated from two different approaches, are close enough which spans the reliability of the proposed method. This method can be applicable for short term load forecasting of any isolated area throughout the world.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

load forecasting; regression analysis; inverse matrix; isolated area

PL

prognozowanie obciążenia; analiza regresji; macierz odwrotna; obszar izolowany

• Wydawca: Institute of Heat Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Journal of Power Technologies
• Rocznik: 2013
• Tom: Vol. 93, nr 4
• Strony: 185--193
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 22 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Islam A.

• Planning & Development Division (Design) Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) Ltd., Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

autor

Hasib S. R.

• Electrical & Electronic Engineering Bangladesh University (BU), Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh

autor

Islam M. S.

• Electrical & Electronic Engineering Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

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