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Methodological concept of decision making support tool for the purpose of long-term energy planning

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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Formulation of long-term energy strategies and polices is a complex tasks. It needs to consider number of aspects i.a. forecast of energy and fuel demand, possible supply paths, expected impact on environment, as well as public consultation process. There are number of formal methods that aim supporting decision making for the long-term energy planning. They help understanding complexity of problem, finding the best compromise solution and allow public participation. In the following paper methodological concept of combining energy scenarios and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) will be introduced. Energy scenarios are tools that help to explore and understand the future energy system. MCA provides assessment of different policy option in respect to multiple criteria. Moreover it allows public participation in decision making process. Combined method is promising tool for energy planning and decision.
Rocznik
Strony
60--64
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 27 poz., tab., rys.
Twórcy
  • Warsaw University of Technology
Bibliografia
  • [1] Poland. Ministry of Economics. Energy Policy of Poland until 2030. Warsaw 2009.
  • [2] Poland. Ministry of Economics. Projection of demand for fuels and energy until 2030. Appendix 2 to Energy Policy of Poland until 2030. Warsaw 2009.
  • [3] Poland. Ministry of Economics. Conclusions from the Strategic from Environmental Impact Assessment of Energy Policy. Appendix 4 to Energy Policy of Poland until 2030. Warsaw 2009.
  • [4] Poland. Ministry of Economics. Results of the public consolation process of the draft energy policy for Poland till 2030 document [Raport z wyników konsultacji społecznych projektu polityki energetycznej Polski do 2030 roku]. Warsaw 2009.
  • [5] Lund, P.D. „Th e link between political decision-making and energy options: Assessing future role of renewable energy and energy efficiency in Finland.“ Energy 32, 12 (2007): 2271–2281.
  • [6] George, D. “Forecasting, Planning and Strategy for the 21st Century”. Futurics: A Quarterly Journal of Futures Research 16, 3 & 4 (1992): 56.
  • [7] Nielsen, S.K., and K. Karlsson. „Energy scenarios: a review of methods, uses and suggestions for improve ment“. International Journal of Global Energy 3 (2007): 302–322.
  • [8] International Energy Agency. Energy to 2050. Scenarios for Sustainable Future. 2003.
  • [9] Pachauri, R.K., and A. Reisinger, eds. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Core Writing Team. IPCC, Geneva 2007.
  • [10] “Shell energy scenarios to 2050“. Shell International, 2008.
  • [11] Raskin P., et al. „Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. A report of the Global Scenario Group.” Stockholm Environmental Institute, 1998.
  • [12] European Commission Directorate — General for Energy and Transport. European Energy and Transport, Trends to 2030 — Update 2007. DG TREN, Brussels 2008.
  • [13] Heaps, C., et al. „Europe’s Share of the Climate Challenge. Domestic Actions and International Obligations to Protect the Planet”. Stockholm Environmental Institute, 2009.
  • [14] Greenpeace. “Energy Revolution: A sustainable pathway to a clean energy future for Europe”. Amsterdam 2005.
  • [15] Institute for Renewable Energies. “Energy Revolution for Poland”. Raport for Greenpeace Poland. Warsaw 2008.
  • [16] Institute for Sustainable Development. “Alternative Energy Policy for Poland”. Warsaw 2009.
  • [17] Czaplicka-Kolarz, K., K. Stańczyk, and K. Kapusta. „Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009): 327–338.
  • [18] Venjakob, J. “Descriptive energy scenarios for Poland 2050”. PhD thesis. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment and Saarland University. 2010.
  • [19] Ramachandran, M., and S.D. Pohekar. “Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energyplanning — A review.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 8 (2004): 365–381.
  • [20] Wang J.-J., et al. “Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision making.” Renewable Energy Reviews 9 (2009): 2263–2278.
  • [21] Arcipowska, A. “Development of a practicable participatory multi-criteria analysis method as a support ing tool for decision makers”. Proceedings from the 4th Young Scientist Conference towards the challenges of contemporary science. Warsaw, 21–23 Sep. 2009.
  • [22] Beccali M., M. Cellura, and M. Mistretta. “Decision making in energy planning. Application of the ELECTRE method at regional level for the diffusion of renewable energy technology.” Renewable Energy 28 (2003): 2063–2087.
  • [23] Ramanathan, R., and L.S. Ganesh. “A multi-objective programming approach to energy resource allocation problems.” International Journal of Energy Research 17 (1990): 105–119.
  • [24] Voropai N.L., and E.Y. Ivanova. “Multicriteria decision analysis technique in electric power system expansion planning.” Electrical Power and Energy Systems 24 (2002): 71–78.
  • [25] Kowalski, K., et al. “Sustainable energy future: Methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis”. European Journal of Operational Research 3 (2009): 1063–1074.
  • [26] Arbter, K. “SEA and SIA — Two Participative Assessment Tools for Sustainability“. Conference proceedings of the EASY ECO 2 Conference. Vienna, 15–17 May 2003.
  • [27] Belgian Science Policy. Criteria and indicators for sustainable development. Draft proposal modified according to comments received during SEPIA (Sustainable Energy Policy Integrated Assessment) workshop 15/06/2009, Brussels.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-7e1db339-96db-458c-bcf9-16556b9c77af
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