Modelling, identification and prediction of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas

• Autorzy: Dąbrowska Ewa , Kołowrocki Krzysztof
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Methods of oil spill domains determination are reviewed and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. To describe the oil spill domain central point position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve for different kinds of hydro-meteorological conditions are determined. The general model of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is proposed. Moreover, statistical methods of this general model unknown parameters estimation are proposed. These methods are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea. Moreover, approximate expected stochastic prediction and Monte Carlo Simulation in real time prediction of the oil spill domain movement are proposed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

port accident; sea accident; oil spill; oil spill drift; oil spill domain; stochastic modelling; statistical identification; stochastic prediction; Monte Carlo prediction

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 10, No. 1
• Strony: 43--58
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 25 poz., rys., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Dąbrowska Ewa

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Kołowrocki Krzysztof

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).