Modelling of fiscal policy effects on agriculture and industry in Ukraine

• Autorzy: Shevchuk V. , Kopych R.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal policies upon agriculture and industry in Ukraine, with the SVAR model using quarterly data for the 2001–2016 period. The results indicate a positive effect of the government spending on both agricultural production and industrial output, while an increase in the government revenue is of the same expansionary impact for the latter only. Among other results, there is a weak negative short-lived spillover from agriculture to industry, with no causality running on the reverse. As agricultural production in Ukraine is associated with a higher level of government spending in the short run, a direction of causality seems to be just the opposite for industrial output. Both agriculture and industry bring about higher budget revenues in the short run, but for the latter this effect is lagged and more persistent. Controlling for fiscal policy effects, the nominal (real) exchange rate depreciation seems to be expansionary for industrial output. For agriculture, a nominal exchange rate depreciation is restrictionary in the short run, with an expansionary effect in the long run (however, this result is not supported in specification with the real exchange rate). Several implications of fiscal policy effects are discussed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

agriculture; industry; fiscal policy; nominal exchange rate; real exchange rate; Ukraine

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
• Czasopismo: Information Systems in Management
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 6, No. 2
• Strony: 131--142
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 17 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Shevchuk V.

• Institute of Economics, Sociology and Philosophy, Cracow University of Technology

autor

Kopych R.

• Department of International Economic Relations, Lviv National University named by Ivan Franko

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