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Estimate the probability density function of maximum temperature for the Middle East

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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Pollution is one reasons for increase temperature which leads to increase the heat waves which have large socioeconomic and healthy impacts on Middle East. By using monthly daily mean of maximum temperature (C°) at height (2m) covered middle east as a grid of (1581) points for selected months (March, April, May) represent spring and (Jun, July, August) represent Summer for the period 1979 to2018, from the ECMWF, model ERA-interim. Many PDFs have been proposed in recent past, but in present study Logistic, Rayleigh and Gamma distribution are used to describe the characteristics of maximum temperature. This paper attempts to determine the best fitted probability distribution of maximum temperature. To check the accuracy of the predicted data using theoretical probability distributions the goodness of fit criteria Z-test used in this paper. According to the goodness-of-fit criteria and from the graphical comparisons it can be said that Logistic distribution provides the best fit for the observed monthly daily mean of maximum temperature data.
Rocznik
Strony
517--531
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 14 poz., mapy, tab., wykr,
Twórcy
  • Mustansiriyah University, College of Science, Atmospheric Sciences Department Baghdad, Iraq
  • Al-Karkh University of Science, Energy and Environment Sciences College Baghdad, Iraq
Bibliografia
  • Al-Kadim, K.A. (2011). On characterization of the logistic distribution. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/y2qzh6e5
  • Artemiou, A. (2009). Gamma distribution and its relatives. Retrieved from: http://www.math. mtu.edu/aatemio/Courses/Stat318/Lectures/ /Chater4_Lecture4.pdf
  • Aslam, M., Tahir, M., Hussain, Z. & Al-Zahrani, B. (2015). A 3-Component Mixture of Rayleigh Distributions: Properties and Estimation in Bayesian Framework. PLOS ONE, 10(5), e0126183. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0126183
  • Bhakar, S.R., Iqbal, M., Devanda, M., Chhajed, N. & Bansal, A.K. (2008). Probability analysis of rainfall at Kota. Indian Journal of Agricultural Research, 42(3), 201-206.
  • Brown, O. & Crawford, A. (2009). Rising tension, climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development.
  • Evans, J.P., Smith, R.B. & Oglesby, R.J. (2004). Middle East climate simulation and dominant precipitation processes. International Journal of Climatology, 24(13), 1671-1694.
  • Hasanean, H.M. (2015-08-07). Tropical meteorology – Middle East meteorology. In Encyclopedia of Life Support System. UNESCO-EOLSS. Retrieved from: TABLE 6. Table of the normal distribution https://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/ /C01/E6-158-19.pdf
  • Karl, T.R., Melillo, J.M. & Peterson, T.C. (2009). Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Paul, P. (2013). ECMWF reanalysis: Resources for the wind energy community and a few global reanalysis myth-busters. 2013 EWEA Technology Workshop Resource Assessment, Dublin, Ireland. ECMWF. Retrieved from: http://www.ewea.org/events/workshops/wp-content//uploads/2013/06/EWEARA2013-Dublin-1-1-Paul-Poli-ECMWF.pdf [slideshow].
  • Steffen, W., Hughes, L. & Perkins, S. (2014). Heat waves: hotter longer, more often. Sydney: Climate Council of Australia.
  • Tanarhte, M., Hadjinicolaou, P. & Lelieveld, J. (2015). Heat wave characteristics in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East using extreme value theory. Climate Research, 63(2), 99-113.
  • Watterson, I.G. (2008). Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D12106. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009254
  • Weaver, B. (2011-05-27). Hypothesis testing using z- and t-tests. Retrieved from: http://www.angelfire.com/wv/bwhomedir/notes/z_and_t_tests.pdf
  • Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., Kutaladze, N., Rahimzadeh, F., Taghipour, A., Hantosh, T.H., Albert, P., Semawi, M., Karam, A.M., Al-Shabibi, M.H.S., Al-Oulan, Z., Zatari, T., Khelet, I.A.D., Hamoud, S., Sagir, R., Demircan, M., Eken, M., Adiguzel, M., Alexander, L., Peterson, T.C. & Wallis, T. (2005). Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D22104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006181
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-7ab4e46a-0b6a-4a3d-9555-73afe64db914
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