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Warianty tytułu
Prognozowanie bayesowskie : wybory prezydenckie w Stanach Zjednoczonych 2020
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
The article describes and explains a prior centric Bayesian forecasting model for the 2020 US elections. The model is based on the The Economist forecasting project, but strongly differs from it. From the technical point of view, it uses R and Stan programming and Stan software. The article’s focus is on theoretical decisions made in the process of constructing the model and outcomes. It describes why Bayesian models are used and how they are used to predict US presidential elections.
W artykule opisano model prognostyczny wykorzystujący wnioskowanie bayesowskie, prognozujący wynik wyborów prezydenckich w Stanach Zjednoczonych z 2020 roku. Model został stworzony na podstawie prognozy opracowanej przez „The Economist”, jednak z istotnymi różnicami: wykorzystuje język programowania R i Stan oraz oprogramowanie Stan. W artykule skoncentrowano się na przedstawieniu decyzji teoretycznych, które skutkowały zadowalającą prognozą. Wyjaśniono, dlaczego używa się modeli opartych na wnioskowaniu bayesowskim oraz jak tworzy się na ich podstawie prognozę wyborów prezydenckich w USA.
Wydawca
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
91--104
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 20 poz., il., wykr.
Twórcy
autor
- University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland, Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, student
Bibliografia
- [1] Abramowitz, A. “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-For-Change Model.” PS: Political Science & Politics, no. 41(4), 2008.
- [2] Abramowitz, A. “It’s the Pandemic, Stupid! A Simplified Model for Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics, 2020.
- [3] Byler, D. “Nobody Can Predict This Election. Here’s Why.” Washington Post, September 3, 2020, https://www.washington-post.com/opinions/2020/09/03/2020-election-unpredictable-coronavirus-racial-justice-protests/?arc404=true. Accessed November 7, 2020.
- [4] Campbell, J.E., and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. “US Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction.” International Journal of Forecasting, no. 24, 2008.
- [5] Dickinson, M. “The 2012 Presidential Election: Taking the ‘Fun’ Out of Fundamentals?” PS, Political Science & Politics,no. 47(2), 2014.
- [6] Erikson, R., and Ch. Wlezien. “Leading Economic Indicators, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote.” PS: Political Science & Politics, no. 41(4), 2008.
- [7] Erikson, R., and Ch. Wlezien. “Forecasting US Presidential Elections Using Economic and Non-Economic Fundamentals.” PS, Political Science & Politics, no. 47(2), 2014.
- [8] Jackman, S. Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences. Wiley, 2009.
- [9] Kremp, P.A. “State and National Poll Aggregation.” https://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html. Accessed December 11, 2020.
- [10] Kruschke, J. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis. Academic Press, 2014.
- [11] Lauderdale, B., and D. Linzer. “Under-Performing, Overperforming, or Just Performing? The Limitations of Fundamentals-Based Presidential Election Forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting, no. 31(3), 2015.
- [12] Lewis-Beck, Michael S., et al. American Voter Revisited. University of Michigan Press, 2008.
- [13] Linzer, D. “Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, no. 108(501), 2013.
- [14] Mayer, W. “What, If Anything, Have We Learned from Presidential Election Forecasting?” PS: Political Science & Politics, no. 47(2), 2014.
- [15] McCartan, C. https://corymccartan.github.io/projects/president-20. Accessed November 3, 2020.
- [16] Silver, N. “How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works - And What’s Different Because of COVID-19.” FiveThirtyEight. August12, 2020, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19. Accessed November 3, 2020.
- [17] “Forecasting the US Elections.” The Economist, https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president. Accessed November 3, 2020.
- [18] “How The Economist Presidential Forecast Works.” The Economist. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/how-this-works. Accessed November 3, 2020.
- [19] “In Changing U.S. Electorate, Race and Education Remain Stark Dividing Lines.” Pew Research Center. June 2, 2020.https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-u-s-electorate-race-and-education-remain-stark-dividing-lines/. Accessed November 3, 2020.
- [20] FiveThirtyEight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast. Accessed November 3, 2020.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-7aabd164-c571-42e8-a3a9-53900f1d0723