Bayesian Forcasting Model : 2020 Presidential Elections in the United States of America

• Autorzy: Raczyńska Maria

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0014.8642

Warianty tytułu

PL

Prognozowanie bayesowskie : wybory prezydenckie w Stanach Zjednoczonych 2020

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article describes and explains a prior centric Bayesian forecasting model for the 2020 US elections. The model is based on the The Economist forecasting project, but strongly differs from it. From the technical point of view, it uses R and Stan programming and Stan software. The article’s focus is on theoretical decisions made in the process of constructing the model and outcomes. It describes why Bayesian models are used and how they are used to predict US presidential elections.

PL

W artykule opisano model prognostyczny wykorzystujący wnioskowanie bayesowskie, prognozujący wynik wyborów prezydenckich w Stanach Zjednoczonych z 2020 roku. Model został stworzony na podstawie prognozy opracowanej przez „The Economist”, jednak z istotnymi różnicami: wykorzystuje język programowania R i Stan oraz oprogramowanie Stan. W artykule skoncentrowano się na przedstawieniu decyzji teoretycznych, które skutkowały zadowalającą prognozą. Wyjaśniono, dlaczego używa się modeli opartych na wnioskowaniu bayesowskim oraz jak tworzy się na ich podstawie prognozę wyborów prezydenckich w USA.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Bayesian forecasting; forecasting model; US elections; presidential elections 2020; Biden's victory

PL

prognozowanie bayesowskie; model prognostyczny; wybory w USA; wybory prezydenckie 2020; zwycięstwo Bidena

• Wydawca: Wojskowy Instytut Wydawniczy
• Czasopismo: Kwartalnik Bellona
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Nr 1
• Strony: 91--104
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 20 poz., il., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Raczyńska Maria

• University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland, Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, student

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4008-0565

Bibliografia

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• [19] “In Changing U.S. Electorate, Race and Education Remain Stark Dividing Lines.” Pew Research Center. June 2, 2020.https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-u-s-electorate-race-and-education-remain-stark-dividing-lines/. Accessed November 3, 2020.
• [20] FiveThirtyEight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast. Accessed November 3, 2020.