Modelling oil spill layer thickness and hydro-meteorological conditions impacts on its domain movement at sea area

• Autorzy: Dąbrowska Ewa

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26408/srsp-2022-04

• Konferencja: 16th Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars - SSARS 2022, 4-11 September 2022, Ciechocinek, Poland
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The general model of oil spill domain movement forecasting dependent on the thickness of oil spill layer based on a probabilistic approach considering the influence of the hydro-meteorological conditions at sea area is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. A two-dimensional stochastic process is used to describe the oil spill domain central point position movement. Parametric equation of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve considering the initial thickness of oil spill layer at the oil spill central point is used. Next, the method of oil spill domain determination dependent on the thickness of oil spill layer for various hydro-meteorological conditions is presented. The generalization of the presented approach assuming that the thickness is changing with time is also proposed. At the end, the research further perspective is given.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

oil spill; stochastic modelling; oil layer thickness; domain movement; hydro-meteorological conditions

• Wydawca: Gdynia Maritime University ; Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2022
• Strony: 51--64
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 15 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Dąbrowska Ewa

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

• https://orcid.org/000-0002-6704-9541

Bibliografia

• Bogalecka, M. 2020. Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents. Environmental Impacts. Modeling - Identification - Prediction - Optimization - Mitigation. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Oxford - Cambridge.
• Bogalecka, M. & Kołowrocki, K. 2015a. Modelling, identification and prediction of environment degradation initial events process generated by critical infrastructure accidents. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars 6(1), 47-66.
• Bogalecka, M. & Kołowrocki, K. 2015b. The process of sea environment threats generated by hazardous chemicals release. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars 6(1), 67-74.
• Bogalecka, M. & Kołowrocki, K. 2018. Prediction of critical infrastructure accident losses of chemical releases impacted by climate-weather change. Proceeding of 2018 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Bangkok, 788-792.
• Dąbrowska, E. 2021. Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours. K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 59-75.
• Dąbrowska, E. & Kołowrocki, K. 2019. Modelling, identification and prediction of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas, Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars 10(1), 43-58.
• Fingas, M. 2016. Oil Spill Science and Technology. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Boston - Heidelberg - London - New York - Oxford - Paris - San Diego - San Francisco - Singapore - Sydney - Tokyo.
• Grabski, F. 2014. Semi-Markov Processes: Application in System Reliability and Maintenance. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Boston - Heidelberg - London - New York - Oxford - Paris - San Francisco - Sydney - Tokyo.
• Kołowrocki, K. 2014. Reliability of Large and Complex Systems. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Boston - Heidelberg - London - New York - Oxford - Paris - San Diego - San Francisco - Singapore - Sydney - Tokyo.
• Kuligowska, E. 2018. Monte Carlo simulation of climate-weather change process at maritime ferry operating area. Technical Sciences, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn 1(21), 5-17.
• Limnios, N. & Oprisan, G. 2001. Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability. Birkhauser, Boston.
• Torbicki, M. 2018. Longtime prediction of climate-weather change influence on critical infrastructure safety and resilience. Proceeding of 2018 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Bangkok.
• Xue, J. 1985. On multi-state system analysis. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 34, 329-337.
• Xue J. & Yang, K. 1985. Dynamic reliability analysis of coherent multi-state systems. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 4(44), 683-688.
• Xue J. & Yang, K. 1995. Symmetric relations in multi-state systems. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 4(44), 689-693.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).