Multi-dimensional freight and trade capacity analysis – a case study on Burhan-Khunjerab route in China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC)

Adeel, Muhammad; Khurshid, Muhammad Bilal; Khan, Usama; Khan, Jamal Ahmed

doi:10.20858/sjsutst.2025.126.1

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Tytuł artykułu

Multi-dimensional freight and trade capacity analysis – a case study on Burhan-Khunjerab route in China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC)

Autorzy

Adeel Muhammad , Khurshid Muhammad Bilal , Khan Usama , Khan Jamal Ahmed

Treść / Zawartość

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znpolsl_transp_126_2025_Adeel_multi-dimensional.pdf

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DOI

10.20858/sjsutst.2025.126.1

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Trade corridors are critical for fostering global economic growth, reducing transportation costs, and enhancing regional connectivity, yet increasing trade volumes have imposed significant demands on these infrastructures. This study focuses on the Burhan-Khunjerab route, a pivotal section of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which connects China to global markets through Pakistan. Despite its strategic importance, the route faces challenges including mountainous terrain and limited capacity, raising concerns about its ability to accommodate future freight demands. The study employs a combination of capacity analysis and statistical modeling to estimate the freight-handling capacity of the Burhan-Khunjerab route under the CPEC scenario, specifically for the horizon year 2035. Using Level of Service (LOS) 'C' as the performance benchmark, the analysis identifies the Thakot-Raikot section as the critical bottleneck, capable of handling 9,519 additional trucks per day. Statistical models further reveal that an annual increase of 1 million US dollars in Pakistan’s trade corresponds to a 1.3-million-ton-km annual increase in road freight, while a 1-million-ton rise in trade volume results in a 1,684-million-ton-km increase. By 2035, the route is estimated to handle 7.93% of China’s total trade in monetary terms and 6.39% in tonnage. The findings emphasize the importance of targeted infrastructure improvements and multimodal integration to optimize freight capacity. Policymakers are urged to address critical bottlenecks and invest in capacity management strategies. Globally, this study highlights the transformative potential of trade corridors like CPEC in driving regional integration and global economic growth while offering a replicable framework for analyzing similar emerging trade routes.

Słowa kluczowe

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Burhan-Khunjerab route freight capacity modeling trade corridor level of service (LOS)

Korytarz gospodarczy Chiny-Pakistan (CPEC) trasa Burhan-Khunjerab modelowanie zdolności przewozowej korytarz handlowy poziom usług (LOS)

Wydawca

Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej

Czasopismo

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

Rocznik

2025

Tom

z. 126

Strony

5--21

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 44 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Adeel Muhammad

madeel1@vols.utk.edu

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee Knoxville, TN 37996, USA

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4097-3953

autor

Khurshid Muhammad Bilal

mbilal@nit.nust.edu.pk

National Institute of Transportation, National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Risalpur Cantonment, Pakistan

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1139-4423

autor

Khan Usama

usamakhanphd@gmail.com

Muhriz Infotech, Lahore, Pakistan

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2612-2797

autor

Khan Jamal Ahmed

jamal.ahmed@uettaxila.edu.pk

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1384-5259

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

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