Methods for Scenario Development

• Autorzy: Pereverza K.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper is devoted to scenario development process and methods which are used at different stages of it. Stages of identification of system’s key variables, driving forces and their possible states, assessment of influence, generation of scenario configurations, and analysis of these configurations are described; some methods for these stages are proposed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

scenario; scenario analysis; strategy; morphological analysis; SWOT analysis; key variables; driving forces; consistency

• Wydawca: Foundation for Young Scientists
• Czasopismo: Challenges of Modern Technology
• Rocznik: 2011
• Tom: Vol. 2, no. 4
• Strony: 61--63
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 12 poz., tab., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Pereverza K.

• Institute for Applied System Analysis of NTUU KPI, 03056, Ukraine, Kyiv, Peremohy ave., 37

Bibliografia

• [1] Van Notten, Ph. Writing on the wall: Scenario Development in Times of Discontinuity. Boca Raton, Florida, 2005.
• [2] Scenario Europe 2010–2020: Possible futures for the Union. PSW Paper, 2000.
• [3] Shell Energy Scenario to 2050. Shell International BV, 2008.
• [4] Barbanente, A., A. Khakee, and M. Puglisi. “Scenarios building for Metropolitan Tunis.” Futures 34/7 (2002): 583–596.
• [5] A 1994 exploratory scenario study that examined societal development and their implication for the airlines industry, British Airways Report, 1994.
• [6] Godet, M. Creating future. Scenario planning as a strategic management tool. Paris: Economica Ltd, 2006.
• [7] Wack, P. “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Review 63.5 (1985): 72–29.
• [8] Schwartz, P. The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991.
• [9] Pereverza, K., et al. “Methodology of scenario development based on Ukrainian branch of the WDC interdisciplinary data.” Proceedings of XX CODATA conference (2008): 259--267.
• [10] Zgurovsky, M., and K. Pereverza. “Methodology of scenario development for Ukraine using SWOT-analysis.” System decisions and information technology 2 (2009): 7–17.
• [11] Zgurovsky, M., and A. Gvishiani. Sustainable Development. Global Simulation: Quality of Life and Security of the World Population. Kyiv: NTUU “KPI”, Polytechnika, 2008.
• [12] Ritchey, T. Futures Studies using Morphological Analysis. 2005−2008. www.swemorph.com.