Two deficits and economic growth: case of CEE countries in transition

• Autorzy: Gurgul H. , Lach Ł.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Dwa deficyty a wzrost ekonomiczny. Przypadek krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w fazie transformacji

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The main goal of this contribution was to provide evidence on the dynamic interdependencies between economic growth and budget and trade deficits in ten new EU members in transition in the last decade. It is worth to note, that besides establishing directions of causal relationships this paper also derived some suggestions on signs of the dynamic dependencies analyzed. Outcomes of this paper confirmed that the budget deficits were significantly slowing down the GDP growth rates in case of new EU-members in transition. In addition, these deficits had negative impact on the convergence process of examined countries towards the highly developed European economies. The evidence supporting adverse causality was considerably weaker. The empirical results allow to claim that in the period under study there was a unidirectional negative Granger causality from budget deficits to trade deficits. Therefore, in case of CEE economies in transition the twin deficit hypothesis was not the case.

PL

Głównym celem tego artykułu było dostarczenie dowodów na istnienie dynamicznych współzależności pomiędzy wzrostem ekonomicznym a deficytem budżetowym i handlowym w przypadku dziesięciu nowych członków Unii Europejskiej będących w fazie transformacji. Warto podkreślić, że oprócz ustalenia kierunków zależności przyczynowych w artykule tym podane zostały też sugestie dotyczące znaków badanych związków dynamicznych. W świetle wyników empirycznych deficyt budżetowy powodował poważne spowolnienie gospodarcze, jeśli chodzi o stopę wzrostu PKB nowych członków Unii Europejskiej w fazie transformacji. Ponadto deficyt spowalniał konwergencję gospodarek badanych krajów do gospodarek wysoko rozwiniętych państw Unii Europejskiej. Przyczynowość w odwrotnym kierunku okazała się być istotnie słabsza. Badania wykazały również, że w badanym okresie istniała jednokierunkowa zależność ujemna o charakterze przyczynowym w kierunku od deficytu budżetowego do deficytu handlowego. W przypadku państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej będących w fazie transformacji hipoteza o bliźniaczych deficytach nie znalazła zatem potwierdzenia w wynikach empirycznych.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

economic growth; twin deficits; CEE transition economies

PL

wzrost gospodarczy; deficyty bliźniacze; gospodarki regionu CEE w fazie transformacji

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwa AGH
• Czasopismo: AGH Managerial Economics
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: nr 12
• Strony: 79--108
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 37 poz., tab., wykr., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Gurgul H.

• AGH University of Science and Technology, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics

autor

Lach Ł.

• AGH University of Science and Technology, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics

Bibliografia

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