Factors influencing grounding probability in the Baltic Sea area – quantitative assessment

• Autorzy: Przywarty M.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17402/106

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper presents the process of quantitative assessment of selected factors influencing the probability of grounding. All grounding accidents that occurred during one year (2013) in the Baltic Sea area were analysed. The research area was chosen because of very high traffic intensity and a large number of narrow passages that make it difficult for navigation. The research period was limited by the latest data reported by HELCOM up to the year 2013. The Method of Grounding Probability Coefficient (GPC) calculation is proposed to reach the assumed goal. Either internal factors such as the ships size and ship type or external factors such as time of day, wind force and season were taken into account. As a result the values of coefficients describing the impact of various factors on the probability are evaluated. This coefficients, taking into consideration coupling effect, can be used in future in the navigational safety simulation models based on the assumed value of accident probability.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

vessels grounding causes; grounding probability coefficient; navigational safety; quantitative assessment; research area; internal factors

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: nr 45 (117)
• Strony: 196--201
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 9 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Przywarty M.

• Maritime University of Szczecin, Institute of Marine Traffic Engineering 1–2 Wały Chrobrego St., 70-500 Szczecin, Poland

Bibliografia

• 1. Gucma, L (2009) Wytyczne do zarządzania ryzykiem morskim. Szczecin: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Akademii Morskiej (in Polish).
• 2. HELCOM (2004–2013) Annual reports on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea area during 2004–2013.
• 3. HELCOM (2014) Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea in 2013.
• 4. Przywarty, M. (2012) Stochastyczny model oceny bezpieczeństwa. PhD dissertation (in Polish). Szczecin: Maritime University Szczecin.
• 5. Stornes, P. (2015) Risk influencing factors in maritime accidents. An exploratory statistical analysis of the Norwegian Maritime Authority incident database. Trondheim: Studio Apertura, NTNU Social Research.
• 6. UKHO NP18 (2012) Admiralty Sailing Directions NP18, Baltic Pilot, Vol. 1, 16th Edition.
• 7. UKHO NP19 (2014) Admiralty Sailing Directions NP19, Baltic Pilot, Vol. 2, 16th Edition.
• 8. UKHO NP20 (2013) Admiralty Sailing Directions NP20, Baltic Pilot, Vol. 3, 12th Edition.
• 9. Yin, F., Mou, J. & Wen, Y. (2010) Analyzing environmental contributors to vessel traffic accident based on Bayesian theorem. Proceedings of the 20th International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers, ISOPE2010, Beijing, China.