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The impact of markups and wages on changes in the level of inflation in Poland

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This paper analysis of the impact of markups and wages of enterprises on changes in the level of inflation in Poland in the years 2007–2022. The impact of markups and wages on changes in CPI were assessed using the VECM model, the impulse responses, and the variance decomposition. The results indicate that industrial sector, including the mining and quarrying section, showed the highest dynamics of changes in markups and wages. In the years 2005–2022, the impact of markups on changes in CPI was stronger, although it was losing importance, with a weaker but growing impact of wages. Forecasts of the degree of clarification of the CPI in Poland indicate a greater importance of markups, with the impact of wages weaker by half, but growing over time. The paper extends the state of theoretical and empirical studies on the determinants of the CPI and the inflation expectations. It also considers the context of persistent exogenous and endogenous shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and changes in demand and supply impulses. The results of this study may be valuable as a contribution.
Słowa kluczowe
Wydawca
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Strony
145--–164
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 24 poz., tab., wykr.
Twórcy
  • SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Management and Finance, Department of Applied Economics
Bibliografia
  • [1] Boissay, F., De Fiore, F., Igan, D., Tejada, A.P. and Rees, D. (2022) ‘Are major advanced economies on the verge of a wage-price spiral?’, BIS, Bulletin, No. 53, [Online], Avaiable: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull53.pdf [10 April 2023].
  • [2] CSO (2023), Central Statistical Office, Macroeconomic indicators, quarterly macroeconomic indicators, [Online], Available: https://stat.gov.pl/wskazniki [10 April 2023].
  • [3] Dąbrowski, I. (2016) Mechanizmy sprzężeń zwrotnych a równowaga i dynamika systemu ekonomicznego, Warszawa: Oficyna Wydawnicza, Szkoła Główna Handlowa.
  • [4] De Loecker, J., Eeckhout, J. and Unger, G. (2020) ‘The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 135, No. 2, pp. 561–644, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz041.
  • [5] Dudek, M.K. (2008) O problemach polityki pieniężnej inaczej (normalnie?), Warszawa: Oficyna Wydawnicza Szkoła Główna Handlowa.
  • [6] Foster, L., Haltiwanger, J. and Syverson, C. (2008) ‘Reallocation, Firm Turnover and Efficiency: Selection or Profitability?’, American Economic Review, vol. 98, No. 1, pp. 394–425.
  • [7] Friedman, M. (1959) ‘The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results’, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 67, No. 4, pp. 327–351.
  • [8] Friedman, M. (1970) ‘A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis’, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 78, No. 2, pp. 193–238.
  • [9] Friedman, M. (1984) ‘Lessons from the 1979–1982 Monetary Policy Experiment’, American Economic Review, vol. 74, No. 2, pp. 397–400.
  • [10] Glover, A., Mustre-del-Rίo, J. and Ende-Becker von, A. (2023) ‘How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation’, Economic Review, January 12, [Online], Avaiable: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-review/how-much-have-record-corporate-profits-contributed-to-recent-inflation/ [10 March 2023].
  • [11] IMF (2022) ‘Wage Dynamic Post-Covid-19 and Wage-Price Spiral Risks’, World Economic Outlook, Countering The Cost-Pf-Living Crises, pp. 51–69.
  • [12] Johansen S. (1991), ‘Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models’, Econometrica, No. 59, pp. 1551–1580.
  • [13] Johansen S. (1992), ‘Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 54, pp. 383–397.
  • [14] Johansen S. (1995), Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • [15] Keynes, J.M. (1947) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, [Online], Avaiable: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-70344-2 [10 March 2023].
  • [16] Kosztowniak, A. (2022) ‘Wpływ Systemu Rezerwy Federalnej z Bretton Woods na politykę monetarną i bilanse płatnicze w gospodarce światowej na przełomie XX i XXI w.’, in Bartkowiak, R., Ostaszewski, J. and Polański, Z. (ed.) System z Bretton Woods i jego dziedzictwo: od pieniądza złotego do cyfrowego, Warszawa: Oficyna Wydawnicza, Szkoła Główna Handlowa, pp. 183–210.
  • [17] Kosztowniak, A. (2023) ‘Impact of Inflation, Markups and Wages on changes in the Profitability of Enterprises in Poland’, Finanse i Prawo Finansowe. Journal of Finance and Financial Law, vol. 4(40), pp. 201–224.
  • [18] Modigliani, F. (1977) ‘The monetarist controversy or, should we forsake stabilization policies?’, The American Economic Review, vol. 67, No. 2, pp. 1–17.
  • [19] NBP (2023a) Metodyka obliczania miar inflacji bazowej publikowanych przez Narodowy Bank Polski, [Online], Avaiable: https://static.nbp.pl/dane/inflacja/metodyka.pdf [10 March 2023].
  • [20] NBP (2023b) Projekcja inflacji i wzrostu gospodarczego Narodowego Banku Polskiego na podstawie modelu NECMOD, [Online], Available: https://static.nbp.pl/dane/projekcja-inflacji/necmod_marzec_2023.pdf [10 March 2023].
  • [21] Okun, A.M. (1970) The Political Economy of Prosperity. A recent Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers takes a close look at efforts to stabilize our dynamic economy, Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution.
  • [22] Perry, M.K. (1982) ‘Oligopoly and Consistent Conjectural Variations’, The Bell Journal of Economics, vol. 13(1), pp. 197–205.
  • [23] Traina, J. (2018) ‘Is Aggregate Market Power Increasing? Production Trends Using Financial Statements’, Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State, New Working Paper Series, No. 17, [Online], Available: https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Traina-WITH-COVER.pdf [10 March 2023].
  • [24] Wang, Z., Wei, S.-J. and Zhu, K. (2013) ‘Quantifying international production sparing at the bilateral and sector levels’, NBER Working Papers, 19677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., November.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-75832e5c-f6cd-475a-af7c-4e219ad53707
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