Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

Piniewski, M.; Marcinkowski, P; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0116-3

Powiadomienia systemowe

Sesja wygasła!
Sesja wygasła!

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

Autorzy

Piniewski M. , Marcinkowski P , Kundzewicz Z. W.

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-018-0116-3

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

Słowa kluczowe

river flow high flow low flow Poland trend detection

przepływ rzeki wysoka przepływność niska przepływność Polska

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2018

Tom

Vol. 66, no. 3

Strony

347--360

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 50 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Piniewski M.

m.piniewski@levis.sggw.pl

Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, Warsaw, Poland
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

autor

Marcinkowski P

Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Kundzewicz Z. W.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan´, Poland

Bibliografia

1. Banasik K, Hejduk L, Hejduk A, Kaznowska E, Banasik J, Byczkowski A (2013) Long-term variability of runoff from a small catchment in the region of the Kozienice Forest. Sylwan 158:578–586
2. Bard A, Renard B, Lang M, Giuntoli I, Korck J, Kobolsching G, Janza M, d’Amico M, Volken D (2015) Trends in the hydrologic regime of Alpine rivers. J Hydrol 529:1823–1837
3. Bormann H, Pinter N (2017) Trends in low flows of German rivers since 1950: comparability of different low-flow indicators and their spatial patterns. River Res Appl 33:1191–1204
4. Burn DH, Hannaford J, Hodgkins GA, Whitfield PH, Thorne R, Marsh T (2012) Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow. Hydrol Sci J 57(8):1580–1593
5. Cohn TA, Lins HF (2005) Nature’s style: naturally trendy. Geophys Res Lett 32(23):L23402
6. Gerten D, Lucht W, Kundzewicz ZW (2012) Detection and attribution of changes in water resources. In: Kundzewicz ZW (ed) Changes in flood risk in Europe, Special Publication No. 10. IAHS Press, Wallingford, pp 422–434
7. Graczyk D, Pińskwar I, Kundzewicz ZW, Hov Ø, Førland EJ, Szwed M, Choryński A (2017) The heat goes on—changes in indices of hot extremes in Poland. Theor Appl Climatol 129(1–2):459–471
8. Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196
9. Hannaford J, Buys G, Stahl K, Tallaksen LM (2013) The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:2717–2733
10. Hanson CE, Palutikof JP, Livermore MTJ, Barring L, Bindi M, Corte-Real J, Durao R, Giannakopoulos C, Good P, Holt T, Kundzewicz ZW, Leckebusch GC, Moriondo M, Radziejewski M, Santos J, Schlyter P, Schwarb M, Stjernquist I, Ulbrich U (2007) Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project. Clim Change 81:163–177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9230-3
11. Hodgkins GA, Whitfield PH, Burn DH, Hannaford J, Renard B, Stahl K, Fleig AK, Madsen H, Mediero L, Karhonen J, Murphy C, Wilson D (2017) Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe. J Hydrol 552:704–717
12. Ilnicki P, Farat R, Górecki K, Lewandowski P (2014) Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrol Sci J 59(6):1117–1134
13. Kaczmarek Z (2003) The impact of climate variability on flood risk in Poland. Risk Anal 23:559–566
14. Kędra M (2017) Long-term trends in river flow: a case study of the Soła River (Polish Carpathians). In: E3S Web of Conferences, vol 19. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20171902012
15. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London
16. Koutsoyiannis D, Montanari A (2007) Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: uncertainty and insights. Water Resour Manag 43:W05429. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005592
17. Kriaučiūnienė J, Meilutytė-Barauskienė D, Reihan A, Koltsova T, Lizuma L, Šarauskienė D (2012) Variability in temperature, precipitation and river discharge in Baltic States. Boreal Environ Res 17:150–162
18. Kundzewicz ZW, Robson AJ (2004) Change detection in river flow records—review of methodology. Hydrol Sci J 49(1):7–19
19. Kundzewicz ZW, Graczyk D, Maurer T, Pińskwar I, Radziejewski M, Svensson C, Szwed M (2005) Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow. Hydrol Sci J 50(5):797–810
20. Kundzewicz ZW, Førland EJ, Piniewski M (2017) Challenges for developing national climate services—Poland and Norway. Clim Serv 8:17–25
21. Leasure DR, Magoulick DD, Longing SD (2016) Natural flow regimes of the Ozark-Ouachita interior highlands region. River Res Appl 32:18–35
22. Marcinkowski P, Grygoruk M (2017) Grygoruk M (2017) Long-term downstream effects of a dam on a lowland river flow regime: case study of the Upper Narew. Water 9:783
23. Miler AT (2015) Variability of the Warta River water discharge in the city of Poznań as influenced by the Jeziorsko reservoir. Arch Environ Prot 41(3):53–59
24. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319:573–574
25. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ, Dettinger MD, Krysanova V (2015) On critiques of “Stationarity is dead: whither water management?”. Water Resour Res 51(9):7785–7789
26. Murphy C, Harrigan S, Hall J, Wilby RL (2013) Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland. Hydrol Sci J 58(4):755–772
27. Niedźwiedź T, Łupikasza E, Pińskwar I, Kundzewicz ZW, Stoffel M, Małarzewski Ł (2015) Variability of high rainfalls and related synoptic situations causing heavy floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains. Theor Appl Climatol 119(1–2):273–284
28. Piniewski M (2017) Classification of natural flow regimes in Poland. River Res Appl 33:1205–1218. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3153
29. Piniewski M, Mezghani A, Szcześniak M, Kundzewicz ZW (2017a) Regional projections of temperature and precipitation changes. Robustness and uncertainty aspects. Met Zeit 26(2):223–234
30. Piniewski M, Szcześniak M, Huang S, Kundzewicz ZW (2017b) Projections of runoff in the Vistula and the Odra river basins with the help of the SWAT model. Hydrol Res. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.280
31. Piniewski M, Szcześniak M, Kundzewicz ZW, Mezghani A, Hov Ø (2017c) Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: model projections in the European-scale context. Hydrol Process 31(12):2210–2225
32. Pińskwar I, Choryński A, Graczyk D, Kundzewicz ZW (2018a) Observed changes in precipitation in Poland. Geografie (in review)
33. Pińskwar I, Choryński A, Graczyk D, Kundzewicz ZW (2018b) Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2372-1
34. Pociask-Karteczka J (2006) River hydrology and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a general review. Ambio 35(6):312–314
35. Pociask-Karteczka J (2011) River runoff response to climate changes in Poland (East-Central Europe). IAHS Publication No. 344, pp 182–187
36. Ruiz-Villanueva V, Stoffel M, Wyżga B, Kundzewicz ZW, Czajka B, Niedźwiedź T (2016) Decadal variability of floods in the Northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains Reg. Environ Change 3:603–615
37. Rutkowska A, Willems P, Onyutha C, Młocek W (2017) Temporal and spatial variability of extreme river flow quantiles in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland. Hydrol Process 31:1510–1526
38. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891
39. Sen AK, Niedzielski T (2010) Statistical characteristics of riverflow variability in the Odra River Basin, Southwestern Poland. Pol J Environ Stud 19(2):387–397
40. Somorowska U (2016) Changes in drought conditions in Poland over the past 60 years evaluated by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. Acta Geophys 64(6):2530–2549
41. Somorowska U (2017) Climate-driven changes to streamflow patterns in a groundwater-dominated catchment. Acta Geophys 65:789–798
42. Stahl K, Hisdal H, Hannaford J, Tallaksen LM, van Lanen AJ, Sauquet E, Demuth S, Fendekova M, Jodar J (2010) Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14:2367–2382
43. Steirou LG, Gerlitz L, Apel H, Merz B (2017) Links between large-scale circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: a review. J Hydrol 549:484–500
44. Stonevicius E, Valiuškevicius G, Rimkus E E, Kazys J (2014) Climate induced changes of Lithuanian rivers runoff in 1960–2009. Water Resour 41:592–603
45. Strupczewski WG, Singh VP, Mitosek HT (2001) Non-stationary approach to at-site flood-frequency modelling. Part III. Flood analysis of Polish rivers. J Hydrol 248:152–167
46. Szwed M, Pińskwar I, Kundzewicz ZW, Graczyk D, Mezghani A (2017) Changes of snow cover in Poland. Acta Geophys 65:65–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0007-z
47. Wrzesiński D (2011) Regional differences in the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on seasonal river runoff in Poland. Quaest Geogr 30(3):127–136
48. Wrzesiński D, Sobkowiak L (2018) Detection of changes in flow regime of rivers in Poland. J Hydrol Hydromech 66(1):55–64
49. Yue S, Wang C (2002) The Mann–Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18:201–218
50. Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-745c0cae-8cd3-4c2e-9bbc-dc21c5d850aa