Forecastability of a heavy precipitation event at diferent lead times using WRF model: the case study in Karkheh River basin

Maddah, Mohammad Amin; Akhoond-Ali, Ali Mohammad; Ahmadi, Farshad; Ghafarian, Parvin; Rusin, Igor Nikolayevich

doi:10.1007/s11600-021-00669-4

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Forecastability of a heavy precipitation event at diferent lead times using WRF model: the case study in Karkheh River basin

Autorzy

Maddah Mohammad Amin , Akhoond-Ali Ali Mohammad , Ahmadi Farshad , Ghafarian Parvin , Rusin Igor Nikolayevich

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-021-00669-4

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Since insufficient warning time limits the possibility of taking precautionary actions by managers of water resources, forecast lead time in the hydro-meteorological warning considers as a crucial index. The aim of this study, first, is to investigate the sensitivity of heavy precipitation forecast toward lead time and, second, to identify forecast lead time, best suited for predicting the heavy precipitation event, on 31 March 2019, on Karkheh River basin in Iran. By applying Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a total of 12 experiments were designed via combinations of three microphysics (MPS) and two cumulus (with and without for nest domain) parameterization schemes (CPS) over two interactively nested domains. Finally, to achieve the aims, 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts through the designed experiments at different lead times (up to 198 h) were examined by comparing against observations. The results showed that the 4-km domain has an advantage over the 12-km domain at lead-times shorter than 102 h, while the sensitivity to the use of CPS for the 4-km domain is positively increased at lead-times longer than 102 h. Based on the assessed lead-times, the performance of Grell–Freitas CPS was better than that of Kain–Fritsch CPS. The WSM6 MPS also showed advantages over the Thompson and Goddard MPSs at lead-times shorter than 78 h. The maximum amount and the spatial average of precipitation tend to be underestimated, and the extent of the underestimation increases with lead-time. Taken together, these results suggest that a forecast lead-time of 78–102 h was appropriate for issuing warnings for the targeted heavy precipitation event.

Słowa kluczowe

Karkheh river basin lead time quantitative precipitation forecast WRF verification

dorzecze rzeki Karcheh czas realizacji ilościowa prognoza opadów weryfikacja WRF

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2021

Tom

Vol. 69, no. 5

Strony

1979--1995

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 98 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Maddah Mohammad Amin

ma.maddah@scu.ac.ir

Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9120-9971

autor

Akhoond-Ali Ali Mohammad

aliakh@scu.ac.ir

Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

autor

Ahmadi Farshad

f.ahmadi@scu.ac.ir

Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

autor

Ghafarian Parvin

p.ghafarian@inio.ac.ir

Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science, Tehran, Iran

autor

Rusin Igor Nikolayevich

inrusin2008@yandex.ru

Department of Dynamic Meteorology and Climatology, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

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