Sewage Volume Forecasting on a Day-Ahead Basis – Analysis of Input Variables Uncertainty

• Autorzy: Jurasz Jakub , Piasecki Adam , Kaźmierczak Bartosz

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.12911/22998993/112507

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Water consumption and the resulting sewage volume (both strongly impacted by meteorological parameters) are of key importance for an efficient and sustainable operation of waterworks and wastewater treatment plants. Therefore, the objective of this research is to analyze the potential impact of input variables uncertainty on the performance of sewage volume forecasting model. The research is based on a real, three-year long, daily time series collected from Toruń (Poland). The used time series encompassed: sewage volume, water consumption, rainfall, temperature, precipitation, evaporation, sunshine duration and precipitation at a six hours interval. Neural network has been selected as a forecasting tool a multi-layer perceptron artificial. , a simulation model for the sewage volume was created which considered the above-mentioned time series as exogenous variables. Further, its performance was tested assuming that all non-historical input variables are prone to their individual forecasting errors. The analysis was dedicated firstly to each variable individually and later the potential of all of them being uncertain was tested. A lack of correlation between the input variables error was assumed. The research provides an interesting solution for visualizing the quality and actual performance of forecasting models where some or all of input variables has to be forecast.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

artificial neural network; error forecasting; exogenous variable uncertainty

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej ; Lublin University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Journal of Ecological Engineering
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 20, nr 9
• Strony: 70--79
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 31 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Jurasz Jakub

• AGH University, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Cracow, Poland
• MDH University, Högskoleplan 1, 722 20 Västerås, Sweden

autor

Piasecki Adam

• Nicolaus Copernicus University, Lwowska 1, 87-100 Toruń, Poland

autor

Kaźmierczak Bartosz

• Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wyb. Wyspianskiego 27, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland

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