Forecasting the oecd fixed broadband penetration with genetic programming method, diffusion models and macro-economic indicators

• Autorzy: Salpasaranis K. , Stylianakis V.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/ipc-2016-0004

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper presents the implementation of a modified Genetic Programming (GP) metod in for casting fixed broadband telecommunications penetration percentage in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The specific GP method combines the use of known diffusion models for technological forecasting purposes, such as Logistic, Gompertz and Bass and the GP. The combination method produces both time dependant and causal models with high performance statistical indicators. Also, multiple approaches to forecasting can be implemented, mainly with no big datasets.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

genetic programming; OECD; genetic algorithms GA

• Wydawca: Instytut Telekomunikacji i Informatyki Uniwersytetu Technologiczno-Przyrodniczego w Bydgoszczy
• Czasopismo: Image Processing & Communications
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: Vol. 21, no. 1
• Strony: 45--54
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Salpasaranis K.

• Deptartment of Electrical & Computer Engineering, University of Patras, Greece

autor

Stylianakis V.

• Deptartment of Electrical & Computer Engineering, University of Patras, Greece

Bibliografia

• [1] Bass,F.M.(1969).A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management science, 15(5), 215–227.
• [2] Holland, J.H., (1975). Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems. University of Michigan Press.
• [3] Jedrzejowicz, P., et al. (2011). Collective Intelligence of Genetic Programming for Macroeconomic Forecasting. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, ICCCI 2011, Part II, LNCS 6923, pp. 445– 454
• [4] Konstantinos, S., Vasilios, S. (2011). A new empirical model for short-term forecasting of the broadband penetration: a short research in Greece. Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, 2011, 28. doi:10.1155/2011/798960
• [5] Koza, J.R. (1992). Genetic programming: on the programming of computers by means of natural selection (Vol. 1). MIT press.
• [6] Koza, J.R. (1994). Genetic programming for economic modeling. Statistics and Computing 4(2), 187–197
• [7] OECD, (2014). OECD Factbook 2014: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics. OECD Publishing
• [8] OECD Broadband Portal. (2016). Historical time series, fixed and wireless broadband penetration (Dec. 2015). OECD Broadband Portal
• [9] Pe´na-López, I. (2015). OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015.
• [10] Salpasaranis, K., Stylianakis, V. (2012). A hybrid genetic programming method in optimization and forecasting: a case study of the broadband penetration In OECD countries. Advances in Operations Research, 2012. doi:10.1155/2012/904797
• [11] Salpasaranis, K., Stylianakis, V., Kotsopoulos, S. (2014). Combining Diffusion Models and Macroeconomic Indicators with a Modified Genetic Programming Method: Implementation in Forecasting the Number of Mobile Telecommunications Subscribers in OECD Countries. Advances in Operations Research, 2014. doi:10.1155/2014/568478

Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę.