Rewolucja łupkowa: Światowe rynki gazu i ropy naftowej w warunkach transformacji

• Autorzy: Aguilera R. F. , Radetzki M.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/gospo-2015-0002

Warianty tytułu

EN

The shale revolution: Global gas and oil markets under transformation

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Rewolucja łupkowa, opierająca się na gazie i ropie z łupków, nieoczekiwanie i jednoznacznie zaczęła zmieniać krajobraz energetyczny Stanów Zjednoczonych. Należy się spodziewać jej rozszerzenia poza terytorium Stanów Zjednoczonych, z daleko idącymi konsekwencjami nie tylko dla globalnej energetyki, ale także dla makroekonomii i polityki wielu krajów. Celem niniejszej pracy jest lepsze zrozumienie uwarunkowań, które doprowadziły do wyżej wspomnianej rewolucji, ocena metod eksploatacji oraz związanych z nimi zagrożeń dla środowiska naturalnego, przedstawienie scenariuszy, jakich można racjonalnie oczekiwać w nadchodzących dekadach, jak i próba zarysu wpływu dojrzewającej rewolucji łupkowej na polityczne i ekonomiczne decyzje dokonywane przez kraje eksportujące energię, jak również ją importujące. Prognozuje się, że najbliższe dwie dekady w Stanach Zjednoczonych dadzą początek szeroko zakrojonej ekspansji pod względem aktywności na rynku gazu i ropy z łupków. W skali globalnej, liderami przemysłu łupkowego mogą być te kraje, które są już znaczącymi producentami gazu i ropy naftowej. Ustanowienie ramowych założeń mających umożliwić i wspierać bezpieczny rozwój przemysłu łupkowego jest warunkiem koniecznym dla rozpoczęcia eksploatacji łupków. Najważniejszą konsekwencją udanej rewolucji łupkowej będzie presja na obniżkę cen gazu i węgla na rynkach regionalnych oraz ropy naftowej na rynkach globalnych.

EN

The shale gas and oil revolution has unexpectedly and forcefully begun to change the energy landscape in the United States. It is expected to spread beyond the US, with far reaching implications for the global energy map, but also for the macro-economy and politics of many countries. The purpose of this paper is to bring a better understanding to what prompted the revolution, to assess the production methods and associated environmental concerns, to speculate what can reasonably be expected in coming decades, and to sketch the full impact of a ripening shale revolution on the emerging economic and political policy choices for energy exporting and importing countries.We find that a large scale expansion can be expected in US shale gas and oil activities in the coming two decades. Globally, the shale leaders are likely to be countries that are already significant gas and oil producers. Setting up a policy framework to allow and promote shale development in a safe manner is a necessity for the launch of shale exploitation. The most important implication of a successful shale revolution would arguably be a downward pressure on gas and coal prices in regional markets and on the global oil price.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

gaz łupkowy; ropa naftowa; geopolityka; makroekonomia

EN

shale gas; shale oil; geopolitics; macroeconomy

• Wydawca: Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN ; Komitet Zrównoważonej Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi PAN
• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: T. 31, z. 1
• Strony: 5--26
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 55 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Aguilera R. F.

• Curtin University, GPO Box 1987 Perth WA 6845, Australia

autor

Radetzki M.

• LuleÍ University of Technology, Sweden

Bibliografia

• [1] Abiteboul, J. 2012. What is the Time Line for LNG Exports from the USA? Presentation to the Flame Conference, Amsterdam, 12 April.
• [2] Aguilera i in. 2012 – Aguilera, R.F., Ripple, R.D. i Aguilera, R. 2012. Link between Rocks, Hydraulic Fracturing, Economics, Environment, and the Global Gas Portfolio. SPE Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference. CURC 2, 1044-1068.
• [3] BP Annual. BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
• [4] Brantley, S.L. i Meyendorff, A. 2013. The Facts on Fracking. The New York Times, March 13. [Online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/opinion/global/the-facts-on-fracking.html.
• [5] Burnham i in. 2012 – Burnham, A., Han, J., Clark, C.E., Wang, M., Dunn, J.B. i Palou-Rivera, I. 2012. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of shale gas, natural gas, coal, and petroleum. Environmental Science and Technology 46, 619–627.
• [6] CAPP 2013. Canadian Natural Gas Production Forecast. Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, April 13. [Online] Available at: http://www.capp.ca/forecast/Pages/default.aspx.
• [7] CERI 2012. Canadian Oil Sands Supply Costs and Development Projects 2011–2045, Canadian Energy Research Institute Study 128, Calgary, Canada.
• [8] Dahl, C.A. 2004. International energy markets: understanding pricing, policies, and profits, PennWell Corporation, Tulsa, Oklahoma.
• [9] DERA 2012. Energy Study: Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2012. Deutsche Rohstoffagentur, Hannover.
• [10] Ebinger, C. i Avasarala, G. 2013. The Case for US LNG Exports. Oxford Energy Forum, Issue 91.
• [11] EIA 2011a. Review of Emerging Resources: US Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays. Energy Information Administration, Washington DC.
• [12] EIA 2011b. World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the US. Energy Information Administration, Washington DC, April.
• [13] EIA 2013a. Annual Energy Outlook, Energy Information Administration, Washington DC.
• [14] EIA 2013b. Monthly Energy Review. Energy Information Administration, Washington DC, April.
• [15] EIA 2013c. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States. Energy Information Administration, Washington DC, June.
• [16] EPRINC 2011. Natural Gas Industry Fakes the Moon Landing. Briefing Memorandum.
• [17] Energy Policy Research Foundation, Washington DC, July 1.
• [18] EPRINC 2013. Prospects for LNG Exports from North America. Presentation at JOGMEC Petroleum Seminar. Tokyo, February 7.
• [19] Fan Gao 2012. Will There Be a Shale Gas Revolution in China by 2020? NG61, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April.
• [20] Fattouh, B. 2013. The US Tight Oil Revolution: What Kind of a Revolution? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, presentation at the Saudi Association for Energy Economics, May 28.
• [21] Fisher, K. i Warpinski, N. 2011. Hydraulic fracture-height growth. SPE paper 145949. Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver, Colorado: October 30–November 2.
• [22] FT Alphaville 2012. US Shale Oil Abundance: Bernstein vs the IEA, Financial Times Alphaville, November 19 [Online] Avaliable at: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/19/1266853/us-shale-oil-abundance-bernstein-vs-the-iea/.
• [23] FT 2013a. Oil Tanker Trade Soars on Back of US Boom. Financial Times, May 13.
• [24] FT 2013b. Chevron back in Argentina with $1.2 billion deal. Financial Times, July 17.
• [25] GEA 2012. Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom.
• [26] Hasset, K. i Mathur, A. 2013. Benefits of Hydraulic Fracking. Oxford Energy Forum, Issue 91.
• [27] Howarth i in. 2011 – Howarth, R.V., Santoro, R. i Ingraffea, A. 2011.Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations. Letter published with open access at Springerlink.com, 13 March.
• [28] Hunter, T. 2011. Regulation of Shale, Coal Seam and Tight Gas Activities in Western Australia. Bond University, Queensland, July.
• [29] IEA 2009. World Energy Outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris.
• [30] IEA 2011a. Medium Term Oil and Gas Markets. International Energy Agency, Paris.
• [31] IEA 2011b. Are we Entering the Golden Age of Gas? International Energy Agency, Paris.
• [32] IEA 2012a. World Energy Outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris.
• [33] IEA 2012b. Medium Term Oil Market Report, International Energy Agency, Paris.
• [34] IEA 2013. Resources to Reserves, International Energy Agency, Paris.
• [35] IHS 2012. America’s Energy Future: The Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution and the US Economy. Englewood, Colorado, USA, October.
• [36] Jiang i in. 2011 – Jiang, M., Griffin, M., Hendrickson, C., Jaramillo, P., VanBriesen, J. i Venkatesh, A. 2011. Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Marcellus shale gas. Environmental Research Letters 6 (3).
• [37] Martin, A. 2009. Appropriate Hydraulic Fracture Technologies for Mature Oil and Gas Formations. SPE Distinguished Lecturer Program, 2008–2009 Season.
• [38] Maugeri, L. 2013. The Shale Oil Boom: A US Phenomenon. Discussion Paper #2013-05, Harvard Kennedy School, June.
• [39] Medlock, K.B. 2012. Shale Gas, Emerging Fundamentals, and Geopolitics. Presentation at James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, June 14.
• [40] NERA Economic Consulting 2012. Macroeconomic Impacts of LNG Exports from the United States.Washington D.C., USA, December.
• [41] Nicot, J.P. i Scanlon, B.R. 2012. Water Use for Shale Gas Production in Texas, US. Environmental Science and Technology 46, 3580–3586.
• [42] Orangi i in. 2011 – Orangi, A., Nagarajan, N.R., Honarpour, M.M. i Rosenzweig, J. 2011. Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas – Condensate Reservoir Production, Impact of Rock, Fluid, and Hydraulic Fractures. SPE Paper 140536, SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference and Exhibition, Woodlands, Texas, January 24–26.
• [43] O’Sullivan, F. i Paltsev, S. 2012. Shale Gas Production: Potential Versus Actual Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Environmental Research Letters 7 (4).
• [44] PGC 2013. Potential Gas Committee Press release, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Co, April 9.
• [45] Platts 2013. US DOE approves Dominion Cove Point plans to export LNG to non-FTA countries. Platts McGraw Hill Financial, September 11.
• [46] Polish Ministry of Treasury 2013. Economic News, Warsaw, April 19.
• [47] Ripple, R.D. 2011. There’s more to coalseam gas than Gasland. The Conversation,May 26. [Online] Avaliable at: http://theconversation.com/theres-more-to-coal-seam-gas-than-gasland-1477.
• [48] Robinson, D. i Qinhua, X. 2013. OIES-Renmin Roundtable Conference on Implications for China of North American Energy Independence: Summary of Discussions. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and Renmin University of China, Beijing, Mar 27.
• [49] Rystad Energy 2012. North American Shale Analysis, Oslo, Norway. [Online] Avaliable at: http://www.rystadenergy.com/ResearchProducts/NASAnalysis.
• [50] Schlumberger 2013. Conventional Sandstone Stimulation, Schlumberger Ltd, Houston. [Online] Avaliable at: http://www.slb.com/services/completions/stimulation/sandstone.aspx.
• [51] SPE News 2013. Australian shale potential No. 1. SPE News Australasia, May 21. [Online] Avaliable at: http://www.spenewsaustralasia.org/article.aspx?p=1&id=2020.
• [52] Stevens, P. 2012. The „Shale Gas Revolution”: Developments and Changes. Chatham House Briefing Paper, London.
• [53] Tucker, A. 2012. The New PowerMap,World Politics After the Boom in Unconventional Energy. Foreign Affairs, December 19.
• [54] US DOE 2011. Shale Gas Production Subcommittee Second Ninety Day Report. Secretary of Energy Advisory Board, US Department of Energy, Washington DC.
• [55] Vihma, A. 2013. The Shale Gas Boom. FIIA Briefing Paper 122, Helsinki, February.