A method for estimating propulsion risk of the ship casualty

• Autorzy: Nguyen N.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Loss of the propulsion function by a ship is one of the most serious categories of hazardous events in sea transport. In specific external conditions it may lead to a loss of ship and environmental pollution. The consequences of propulsion loss by a ship are events classified by the International Maritime Organization as casualties or incidents. The probabilities of occurrence of the former events in a specific time unit constitute the propulsion risk of a ship. Determination of these probabilities is in practice confronted with difficulties connected with shortage of data. A method for estimating the risk caused by loss of a seagoing ship propulsion function is proposed. The estimation is fully based on the expert judgments. Expert is assumed to be well acquainted with the subject he is expected to formulate his judgment on. Expert should also be capable of formulating his judgment. This is connected with level of his education and the language used in the elicitation process, particularly as regards the parameters the expert is expected to estimate. This may be the language of numerical or linguistic values. Numerical values are better but are more difficult to articulate - also errors in judgments are more likely. To overcome this problem and to obtain a more accurate estimation, this study suggests using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which quantifies the subjective judgments and confirms the consistency of collected data. An example of the propulsion risk estimation of container carriers operating on the North Atlantic line allows to assess effectiveness of the method.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

estimation; expert judgment; risk; ship propulsion system; analytic hierarchy process (AHP); sea transport

• Wydawca: Łukasiewicz Research Network - Institute of Aviation ; European Science Society of Powertrain and Transport KONES Poland ; Wydawnictwo Instytutu Technicznego Wojsk Lotniczych
• Czasopismo: Journal of KONES
• Rocznik: 2013
• Tom: Vol. 20, No. 2
• Strony: 315--321
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 10 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Nguyen N.

• Gdynia Maritime University Department of Engineering Sciences Morska Street 81-87, 81-225 Gdynia, Poland tel.: [phone]

Bibliografia

• [1] Brandowski, A., Frackowiak, W., Nguyen, H., Posiadlo, A., Subjective Propulsion Risk of a Seagoing Ship Estimation, Proceedings of ESREL Conference, Valencia 2008.
• [2] Brandowski, A., Estimation of the Probability of Propulsion Loss by a Seagoing Ship, Polish Maritime Research, Gdansk 2009.
• [3] Gniedienko, B. W., Bielajew, J. K., Solowiew, A. D., Metody matematyczne w teorii niezawodnosci, Wydawnictwa Naukowo-Techniczne, Warszawa 1968.
• [4] Graham, P. Casualty and World Fleet Statistics as at 31.12.2008, IUMI Facts & Figures Committee 2009.
• [5] IMO Code for the Investigation of Marine Casualties and Incidents, IMO Resolution A.849 (20), London 1997.
• [6] Kwiesielewicz, M., Analityczny hierarchiczny proces decyzyjny. Nierozmyte i rozmyte porownywanie parami, Instytut Badan Systemowych PAN, Warszawa 2002.
• [7] Modarres, M., Kaminskiy, M., Krivtsov, Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis, Basel: Marcel Dekker Inc., New York 1999.
• [8] Nguyen, H., The Application of the AHP Method in Ship System Risk Estimation, Polish Maritime Research, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 78–82, Gdansk 2009.
• [9] Podsiadlo, A., Analiza uszkodzen okretowych silnikow napedu glownego statkow, Internal Study of Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia 2008.
• [10] Saaty, T. L., The Analytic Hierarchy Process, New York, McGraw-Hill 1980.