Cechy metod predykcji parametrów ruchu stosowanych w rozwiązaniach Inteligentnych Systemów Transportowych

• Autorzy: Pamuła T.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Features traffic parameters prediction methods used in the solutions of Intelligent Transport Systems

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

W artykule podjęto dyskusję cech metod predykcji, stosowanych w ITS, opracowanych i opisanych w literaturze w ciągu ostatnich dziesięciu lat. Wyróżniono trzy obszary zagadnień związanych z predykcją ruchu: identyfikację obiektu predykcji, modelowanie procesu predykcji i ocenę wyników predykcji. Metody predykcji wykorzystują algorytmy z dziedziny analizy własności szeregów czasowych i sztucznej inteligencji takie jak wnioskowanie rozmyte, sieci neuronowe, algorytmy genetyczne. Dokładność predykcji, newralgiczny parametr oceny, warunkowana jest nie tylko przez sprawność algorytmu ale przede wszystkim przez efektywność systemów bieżących pomiarów parametrów ruchu. Mała gęstość pomiarów w skali sterowanego obszaru lub w czasokresie generowania decyzji wymusza zastosowanie hybrydowych metod w celu uzyskania zadowalającej precyzji predykcji.

EN

The paper presents a discussion of properties of prediction methods used in ITS solutions, which were developed and described in literature during the last ten years. Three problem areas are defined identification of prediction object, modeling the prediction process and evaluating prediction results. Prediction methods use time series analysis algorithms and algorithms from the field of artificial intelligence, such as fuzzy reasoning, neural networks, genetic algorithms. The accuracy of prediction, an important parameter of evaluation is conditioned not only by the effectiveness of the algorithms but also by the cost-effectiveness of the current measurements of traffic parameters. Low density measurement scale controlled area or in the duration of force application of the decision generating hybrid methods to obtain a satisfactory precision of prediction.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

metody predykcji natężenia ruchu; metody hybrydowe; Inteligentne Systemy Transportu; IST

EN

traffic flow prediction methods; hybrid methods; Intelligent Transport Systems; ITS

• Wydawca: Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Poznański Instytut Technologiczny
• Czasopismo: Logistyka
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: nr 3
• Strony: 3713--3720, CD 1
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 37 poz., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Pamuła T.

• Wydział Transportu, Politechnika Śląska, Krasińskiego 8, 40-019 Katowice

Bibliografia

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