Development of the US electric car market: macroeconomic determinants and forecasts

• Autorzy: Sotnyk Iryna , Hulak Daniil , Yakushev Oleksandr , Yakusheva Oksana , Prokopenko Olha V. , Yevdokymov Andrii

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.33223/epj/127921

Warianty tytułu

PL

Rozwój rynku samochodów elektrycznych w USA: uwarunkowania makroekonomiczne i prognozy

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the article, mathematical modeling methods are used to study the main trends and macroeconomic determinants of the electric car market development in 2011–2018 on the example of the US. The determinants include economic (GDP), socio-economic (household income), energy (electricity use), and environmental (СО2 emissions) factors. The authors justify the role of electric transport in strengthening national energy security due to the transition to renewable energy technologies and the reduction of fossil fuel use. Based on the constructed linear regression equations, a weak relationship has been revealed between the number of electric vehicles sold and the environmental factor, which can be explained by the small share of electric cars in the US market. The formed multifactor linear model showed a positive impact of both the country’s GDP growth and electricity consumption increase on the number of electric vehicles sold. However, the rise in household incomes negatively influences market development due to insufficient consumer awareness of the electric transport operation benefits, an underdeveloped network of electric vehicle charging stations, etc. Based on the obtained multifactor model, the authors have built optimistic, optimal and pessimistic scenarios for the US electric vehicle market deployment for the next five years. In order to implement the most favorable scenarios, recommendations for market development factors’ management have been made. The results of the study can be used to improve public policy in the US transport and energy sectors, as well as in other countries to optimize the fuel and energy balance, strengthen the energy independence of states by developing clean transport and adapting the model to national specifics.

PL

W artykule zastosowano metody modelowania matematycznego do badania głównych trendów i makroekonomicznych uwarunkowań rozwoju rynku samochodów elektrycznych w latach 2011–2018 na przykładzie USA. Determinanty obejmują czynniki ekonomiczne (PKB), społeczno-ekonomiczne (dochody gospodarstw domowych), energetyczne (zużycie energii elektrycznej) i środowiskowe (emisja СО2). Autorzy potwierdzają znaczącą rolę transportu elektrycznego we wzmacnianiu bezpieczeństwa energetycznego kraju ze względu na przejście na technologie energii odnawialnej i ograniczenie zużycia paliw kopalnych. Na podstawie skonstruowanych równań regresji liniowej ujawniono słabą zależność między liczbą sprzedanych pojazdów elektrycznych a czynnikiem środowiskowym, co można wyjaśnić niewielkim udziałem samochodów elektrycznych w rynku amerykańskim. Utworzony wieloczynnikowy model liniowy wykazał pozytywny wpływ zarówno wzrostu PKB kraju, jak i wzrostu zużycia energii elektrycznej na liczbę sprzedawanych pojazdów elektrycznych. Wzrost dochodów gospodarstw domowych negatywnie wpływa na rozwój rynku ze względu na niedostateczną świadomość konsumentów dotyczącą korzyści płynących z eksploatacji transportu elektrycznego, słabo rozwiniętą sieć stacji ładowania pojazdów elektrycznych, itp. Na podstawie uzyskanego modelu wieloczynnikowego autorzy zbudowali scenariusze rozwoju rynku pojazdów elektrycznych w USA na najbliższe pięć lat: optymistyczny, optymalny i pesymistyczny. W celu realizacji najkorzystniejszych scenariuszy sformułowano rekomendacje dotyczące zarządzania czynnikami rozwoju rynku. Wyniki badania mogą zostać wykorzystane do poprawy polityki publicznej w sektorze transportu i energii w USA, a także w innych krajach do optymalizacji bilansu paliwowo-energetycznego, wzmocnienia niezależności energetycznej państw poprzez rozwój czystego transportu poprzez dostosowanie modelu do specyfiki tych krajów.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

development policy; electromobility; transport sector modeling; forecast; market

PL

polityka rozwoju; elektromobilność; modelowanie sektora transportu; prognoza; rynek

• Wydawca: Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN
• Czasopismo: Polityka Energetyczna
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: T. 23, z. 3
• Strony: 147--164
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 40 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Sotnyk Iryna

• Department of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Business Administration, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine

autor

Hulak Daniil

• Department of Labor Organization, Rationing and Remuneration, PJSC «Cherkasyoblenergo», Ukraine

autor

Yakushev Oleksandr

• Department of Management and Business Administration, Cherkasy State Technological University, Cherkasy, Ukraine

autor

Yakusheva Oksana

• Department of Economics and Management, Cherkasy State Technological University, Cherkasy, Ukraine

autor

Prokopenko Olha V.

• Department of Economics, Collegium Mazovia Innovative University, Siedlce, Poland

autor

Yevdokymov Andrii

• Department of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Business Administration, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine

Bibliografia

• Abhay, Singh 2020. Electric vehicle market. [Online] https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/electric-vehicle- market [Accessed: 2020-09-4].
• Bilan et al. 2019 – Bilan, Y., Vasilyeva, T., Lyeonov, S. and Bagmet, K. 2019. Institutional complementarity for social and economic development. Business: Theory and Practice 20, pp. 103–115, doi: 10.3846/BTP.2019.10.
• Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2020. United States Department of Transportation. [Online] https://www.bts.gov/content/gasoline-hybrid-and-electric-vehicle-sales [Accessed: 2020-09-4].
• Cahill et al. 2014 – Cahill, E., Davies-Shawhyde, J. and Turrentine, S.T. 2014. New car dealers and retail innovation in California’s plug-in electric vehicle market. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Working Paper UCD-ITS-WP-14-04.
• Census Bureau of USA 2020. [Online] https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/ historical-income-households.html [Accessed: 2020-09-4].
• Drożdż et al. 2020 – Drożdż, W., Szczerba, P. and Kruszyński, D. 2020. Issues related to the development of electromobility from the point of view of Polish utilities. Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 23(1), pp. 49–64; DOI: 10.33223/epj/119074.
• Dumirescu et al. 2012 – Dumirescu, L., Stanciu, O., Tichindelean, M. and Vinerean, S. 2012. The use of regression analysis in marketing research. Studies in Business and Economics 7(2), pp. 94–109.
• Dzwigoł et al. 2019 – Dzwigoł, H., Dzwigoł-Barosz, M., Zhyvko, Z., Miskiewicz, R. and Pushak, H. 2019. Evaluation of the Energy Security as a Component of National Security of the Country. Journal of Security and Sustainability 8(3), pp. 307–317; DOI: 10.9770/jssi.2019.8.3(2).
• Fumo, N. and Rafe Biswas, M. A. 2015. Regression analysis for prediction of residential energy consumption. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 47, pp. 332–43; doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.03.035.
• Girin, V. and Girin, I. 2017. The current state of electric vehicles and its prospects in Ukraine. Mining Bulletin 102, pp. 21–25.
• Gnann et al. 2015 – Gnann, T., Plötz, P., Kühn, A. and Wietschel, M. 2015. Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 77, pp. 95–112; doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.04.001.
• Gnann et al. 2018 – Gnann, T., Stephens, T.S., Lin, Z., Plötza, P., Liu, C. and Brokate, J. 2018. What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? – A review of international PEV market diffusion models. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 93, pp. 158–164; DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.055.
• Gorova, K. and Sheverdina, A. 2015. The actuality of electric cars usage in Ukraine. Problems and prospects of entrepreneurship development 3(1), pp. 105–107.
• Hausfather, Z. 2019. Factcheck: How electric vehicles help to tackle climate change. [Online] https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change [Accessed: 2020-09-24].
• Hygh et al. 2012 – Hygh, J.S., DeCarolis, J.F., Hill, D.B. and Ranji Ranjithan, S. 2012. Multivariate regression as an energy assessment tool in early building design. Building and Environment 57, pp. 165–75; DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.04.021.
• Kassambara, A. 2018. Simple linear regression in R. [Online] http://www.sthda.com/english/articles/40-regression-analysis/167-simple-linear-regression-in-r/ [Accessed: 2020-09-4].
• Kennedy, P. 2008. A Guide to Econometrics, 6th Edition. Wiley-Blackwell, Hoboken, N. Jersey.
• Kim, J.D. 2019. Insights into residential EV charging behavior using energy meter data. Energy Policy 129, pp. 610–618; DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.049.
• Kościółek, M. and Biały, R. 2018. The comparison of structure of fuel consumption structure in land transport in Poland and selected European countries (Porównanie struktur zużycia paliw w transporcie lądowym w Polsce oraz wybranych krajach europejskich). Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 21(1), pp.117–127 (in Polish).
• Kubatko, O. and Kubatko, O. 2017. Economic estimations of pollution related cancer and nerves morbidity. International Journal of Ecology & Development 32(1), pp. 33–43.
• Kubatko, O. and Kubatko, O. 2019. Economic estimations of air pollution health nexus. Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer 21(3), pp. 1507–1517; DOI: 10.1007/s10668-018-0252-6.
• Lyeonov et al. 2019 – Lyeonov, S., Pimonenko, T., Bilan, Y., Štreimikiene, D. and Mentel, G. 2019. Assessment of green investments’ impact on sustainable development: Linking gross domestic product per capita, greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy. Energies 12(20), pp. 3891; doi: 10.3390/en12203891.
• Liu et al. 2020 – Liu, A., Zhao, Y., Meng, X. and Zhang, Y. 2020. A three-phase fuzzy multi-criteria decision model for charging station location of the sharing electric vehicle. International Journal of Production Economics 225, pp. 107572; DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.107572.
• Melnyk et al. 2019 – Melnyk, L., Kubatko, O., Dehtyarova, I., Matsenko, O. and Rozhko, O. 2019. The effect of industrial revolutions on the transformation of social and economic systems. Problems and Perspectives in Management 17(4), pp. 381–391; doi: 10.21511/ppm.17(4).2019.31.
• Miśkiewicz, R. 2018. The importance of knowledge transfer on the energy market. Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 21(2), pp. 49–62; DOI: 10.24425%2F122774.
• ORNL and NREL 2019 – Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2019. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification. An assessment of technology and knowledge gaps. ORNL/SPR–2020/7 [Online] https://info.ornl.gov/sites/publications/Files/Pub136575.pdf [Accessed: 2020-09-24].
• Pandey et al. 2020 – Pandey, A., Manocha, S. and Saini, P. 2020. A study on an automobile revolution and future of electric cars in India. International Journal of Management 11(3), pp. 107–113.
• Prokopenko et al. 2018 – Prokopenko, O., Omelyanenko, V., and Klisinski, J. 2018. Innovation policy development conceptual framework for national resource security providing. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism 9(5), pp. 1099–1107; doi: 10.14505//jemt.v9.5(29).23.
• Rezvani et al. 2015 – Rezvani, Z., Jansson, J. and Bodin, J. 2015. Advances in consumer electric vehicle adoption research: A review and research agenda. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 34, pp. 122–136; DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2014.10.010.
• Sang, Y.-N. and Bekhet, H.A. 2015. Exploring factors influencing electric vehicle usage intention: an empirical study in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Society 16(1), pp. 57–74; doi: 10.33736/ijbs.554.2015.
• Shkarupa et al. 2017 – Shkarupa, O., Karintseva, O. and Zhukova, T. 2017. Ecological modernization of the transport system in Sumy for green growth of economics. International Journal of Ecology and Development 32(3), pp. 75–85.
• Soltani-Sobh et al. 2017 – Soltani-Sobh, A., Heaslip, K., Stevanovic, A., Bosworth, R. and Radivojevic, D. 2017. Analysis of the electric vehicles adoption over the United States. Transportation Research Procedia 22, pp. 203–212; DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.03.027.
• Sotnyk, I. 2016. Energy efficiency of Ukrainian economy: problems and prospects of achievement with the help of ESCOs. Actual Problems of Economics 1, pp. 192–199.
• Todd, J. and Thorstensen, L. 2013. Creating the clean energy economy. Analysis of the electric vehicle industry. International Economic Development Council [Online] https://www.iedconline.org/clientuploads/Downloads/edrp/IEDC_Electric_Vehicle_Industry.pdf [Accessed: 2020-09-24].
• Tromaras et al. 2017 – Tromaras, A., Aggelakakis, A. and Margaritis, D. 2017. Car dealerships and their role in electric vehicles’ market penetration – a Greek market case study. Transportation Research Procedia 24, pp. 259–266; DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.116.
• U.S. Energy Information Administration 2020. Total energy. [Online] https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T11.01#/?f=A&start=2011&end=2017&charted=1-13 [Accessed: 2020-09-4].
• Vasylyeva, T.A. and Pryymenko, S.A. 2014. Environmental economic assessment of energy resources in the context of Ukraine’s energy security. Actual Problems of Economics 160(1), pp. 252–260.
• Wietschel et al. 2019 – Wietschel, M., Kühnbach, M. and Rüdiger, D. 2019. Die aktuelle treibhausgasemissionsbilanz von elektrofahrzeugen in Deutschland. Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation No. S 02/2019 [Online] https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/sustainability-innovation/2019/WP02–2019_Treibhausgasemissionsbilanz_von_Fahrzeugen.pdf [Accessed: 2020-09-24].
• World Bank Open Data 2020. [Online] https://data.worldbank.org [Accessed: 2020-09-4].
• Yevdokimov et al. 2018 – Yevdokimov, Y., Chygryn, O., Pimonenko, T. and Lyulyov, O. 2018. Biogas as an alternative energy resource for Ukrainian companies: EU experience. Innovative Marketing 14(2), pp. 7–15; DOI: 10.21511/im.14(2).2018.01.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).