Nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process application to modeling of random processes related to accidents in the Baltic Sea waters and ports

• Autorzy: Grabski F.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A crucial role in construction of the models related to accidents on Baltic Sea water and ports play nonhomogeneous Poisson and nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process. The model of consequences and connected to it model of accidents number on Baltic sea waters and ports are here presented. Moreover some procedures of the models parameters identification are presented in the paper. Estimation of some model parameters was made based on data from reports of HELCOM [10, 11], Interreg project Baltic LINes [9] and EMSA [13].

Słowa kluczowe

EN

nonhomogeneous Poisson process; nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process; safety characteristics

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: Vol. 9, No. 3
• Strony: 21--30
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Grabski F.

• Polish Naval Academy, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] Di Crescenzo, A., Martinucci, B. & Zacks, S. Compound Poisson process with a Poisson subordinator. Journal of Applied Probability Vol. 52, No. 2, p. 360-374.
• [2] Fisz, M. (1969). Probability and Mathematical Statistics., Warsaw PWN; (in Polish).
• [3] Grabski, F. (2002). Semi-Markov models of reliability and operation. Warsaw : IBS PAN (in Polish).
• [4] Grabski, F. (2015). Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in Systems Reliability and Maintenance. Elsevier; Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberg, London, New York, Oxford, Paris, San Diego, San Francisco, Sydney.
• [5] Grabski, F. (2017). Nonhomogeneous Poisson process application to modelling accidents number at Baltic waters and ports. Journalof Polish Safety and Reliability Association; volume 8, number 1, p. 39-46.
• [6] Herdzik, J. (2016). Zdarzenia wypadkowe na morzu i ich główne przyczyny (Accident events at sea and their main causes). Autobusy 10/16.p.33-38.
• [7] Limnios, N. & Oprisan, G. (2001). Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability. Boston; Birkhauser.
• [8] Shiryayev, A.N. (1984). Probability. Springer-Verlag, New York, Berlin, Heidelberg, Tokyo.
• [9] Baltic LINes (2016). Shipping in the Baltic Sea – Past, present and future developments relevant for Maritime Spatial Planning. Project Report I. 35 p
• [10] HELCOM (2013). Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea area during 2012. 43 pp.
• [11] HELCOM (2014). Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea in 2013.
• [12] EMSA (2015). Annual Overview of Marine Casualties and Incidents 2014
• [13] EMSA (European Maritime Safety Agency) (2017), ANNUAL overview of marine casualties and incidents 2016. 119 pp.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).