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Projections of the fuel consumption by the road transport in Poland

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The article presents expert estimates for 2010 and a forecast up to year 2030 regarding the number of passenger cars as well as trucks and special vehicles and buses according to the maximum weight group. In case of trucks and special vehicles, included were vehicles with maximum weight of less than 3.5 Mg and maximum weight of more than 3.5 Mg. As regards buses – the condition and forecast number of buses with maximum weight of less than 5.0 Mg and more than 5.0 Mg was presented. The forecast concerning passenger cars and other types of vehicles with maximum weight of less than 3.5 Mg (5.0 Mg in case of buses) focused on the number of vehicles by type of energy. The following types of energy were included: petrol, diesel oil, LPG, NG and electrical energy in case of passenger cars and light duty trucks. Estimates also included the average annual statistical mileage of a vehicle registered in Poland according to the specified category and type of energy. Based on the assumed assumptions in the 2030 perspective – the average fuel consumption was determined per 100 km of statistical mileage in every specified category. The predicted consumption of respective types of energy by the overall Polish car fleet was calculated and according to the specified category in years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.
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autor
  • Motor Transport Institute Jagiellonska Street 80, 03-301 Warsaw, Poland tel.:+48 22 4385126, fax: +48 22 4385401
  • Motor Transport Institute Jagiellonska Street 80, 03-301 Warsaw, Poland tel.:+48 22 4385126, fax: +48 22 4385401
Bibliografia
  • [1] Alberto, A. et al., CNG and diesel transit bus emissions in review, 9th Diesel Engine Emissions Reduction Conference August 24-28, Newport, Rhode Island 2003.
  • [2] Balke, I., Balke, M., Quantitative study of the structure of the vehicle fleet in Poland, including the brand and age of the selected types of vehicles as of the end of 2009, ITS 6002/ZBE, Warsaw 2011, (in Polish).
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  • [8] Chłopek, Z., Szczepański,T., The use of biogas fuel in public transport in order to reduce pollution in ecologically sensitive areas, The Ecological Engineering (Inżynieria Ekologiczna) Nr 30, pp. 27-35, Warsaw 2012.
  • [9] Chłopek, Z., Research on energy consumption by an electrically driven automotive vehicle in simulated urban conditions, Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc – Maintenance and Reliability, 15 (1), pp. 75-82, 2013.
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  • [13] Choudhury, R. et al., GM well–to–wheel analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of advanced fuel/vehicles systems – A European Study, September 2002.
  • [14] GUS, Transportation – the results of operations in 2011, (in Polish).
  • [15] INFRAS AG, Handbuch für Emissionsfaktoren des Strassenverkehrs. Version 3.1, Bern 2010.
  • [16] Liu, Z., Fei, S., Study of CNG/diesel dual fuel engine's emissions by means of RBF neural network, Zhejiang University Press, co–published with Springer-Verlag GmbH, Vol. 5, Nr 8, August, 2004.
  • [17] Merkisz, J. et al., The influence of CNG dissolved in the diesel fuel on the combustion process and concetration of toxic compounds in exhaust gas, 2008 SAE International Powertrains, Fuels and Lubricants Congress, 2008-01-1815.2008.
  • [18] Regulationof the Minister of Infrastructure of 24 October 2005 on type approval of motor vehicles and trailers, (in Polish).
  • [19] Waśkiewicz J., Radzimirski S., Taubert S., Develop a methodology for predicting changes in the road transport sector of activity (in the context of the law on the management of emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances), ITS 7101/ZBE; Warsaw 2011, (in Polish).
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Bibliografia
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