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Tytuł artykułu

The long-run relationship between the stock market and main macroeconomic variables in Poland

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Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The investigation concerns the problem of whether some macroeconomic variables and the EUR/PLN exchange rate might affect the performance of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The answer to this question can be obtained from a cointegration analysis. The advantage of testing for cointegration is the identification of a stable long-run relationship between the stock price index, some macroeconomic variables, and the EUR/PLN exchange rate, which can be implemented using various cointegration methodologies. Analysis of the response of one variable to an impulse of another variable is also performed to show the importance of a given variable in a system.
Wydawca
Rocznik
Strony
7--20
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 23 poz., tab., wykr.
Twórcy
  • AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow, Faculty of Management, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics
  • Student, AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow, Faculty of Applied Mathematics
Bibliografia
  • [1] Abdelaziz, M., Chortareas, G. and Cipollini, A. (2008) ‘Stock Prices, Exchange Rates, and Oil: Evidence from Middle East Oil-Exporting Countries’, Social Science Research Network, vol. 44, pp. 1–27.
  • [2] Barbic, T. and Condic-Jurkic, I. ( 2011) ‘Relationship between macroeconomic funadamentals and stock market indices in selected CEE countries’, Ekonomski Pregled, vol. 62, pp. 113–133.
  • [3] Bhattacharya, B. and Mukherjee, J. (2006) ‘Indian Stock Price Movements and the Macroeconomic Context – A Time-Series Analysis’, Journal of International Business and Economics, vol. 5, pp. 88–93.
  • [4] Brahmasrene, T. and Jiranyakul, K. (2007) ‘Cointegration and Causality between Stock Index and Macroeconomic Variables in an Emerging Market’, Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, vol. 11, pp. 17–30.
  • [5] Chen, G.M., Firth, M. and Rui, O. M. (2002) ‘Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America’, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 26, pp. 1113–1141.
  • [6] Dornbusch, R. and Fischer, S. (1980) ‘Exchange rates and current account’, American Economic Review, vol. 70, pp. 960–971.
  • [7] Fifield, S.G.M., Power, D.M. and Sinclair, C.D. (2002) ‘Macroeconomic Factors and Share Returns: An Analysis using Emerging Market Data’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 7, pp. 51–62.
  • [8] Geske, R. and Roll, R. (1983) ‘The fiscal and monetary linkage between stock returns and inflation’, Journal of Finance, vol. 38, pp. 7–33.
  • [9] Humpe, A. and Macmillan, P. (2007) ‘Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan’, CDMA Working Paper No. 07/20.
  • [10] Johansen, S. (1988) ‘Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, pp. 231–254.
  • [11] Johansen, S. (1991) ‘Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models’, Econometrica, vol. 59, pp. 1551–1580.
  • [12] Kim, K. (2003) ‘Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model’, Review of Financial Economics, vol. 12, pp. 301–313.
  • [13] Loef, M. and Franses, P.H. (2000) ‘On Forecasting Cointegrated Seasonal Time Series’, SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, no. 350.
  • [14] Lutkepohl, H.(1991) Introduction to multiple time series analysis, Berlin and New York: Springer-Verlag.
  • [15] Lutkepohl, H. (2005) New Introduction to multiple time series analysis, Berlin and New York: Springer-Verlag.
  • [16] Lutkepohl, H. (2004) Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • [17] Mahmood, W.M. and Dinniah, M.N. (2009) ‘Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Influences: Evidence from the Six Asian-Pacific Countries’, International Research, Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 30, pp. 154–164.
  • [18] Moore, T. (2007) ‘The Euro stock markets in Hungary, Poland, and UK’, Journal of Economic Integration, vol. 22(1), pp. 69–70.
  • [19] Nieh, C. and Lee, C. (2001) ‘Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries’, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 41, pp. 477–790.
  • [20] Otsu, T. (2009) Seasonal cycle and filtering, Seijo: Seijo University Economic.
  • [21] Rjoub, H. (2012) ‘Stock prices and exchange rates dynamics: Evidence from emerging markets’, African Journal of Business Management, vol. 6(13), pp. 4728–4733.
  • [22] Syriopoulos, T. (2007) ‘Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?’, International Review of Financial Analysis, vol. 16(1), pp. 41–60.
  • [23] Voronkova, S. (2004) ‘Equity Market Integration in Central European Emerging Markets: A Cointegration Analysis with Shifting Regimes’, International Review of Financial Analysis, vol. 13(5), pp. 633–647.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-6666b209-d408-40cc-987e-ef21169b1276
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