Remaining useful life prediction model of the space station

• Autorzy: Li Xiaopeng , Huang Hong-Zhong , Li Fuqiu , Ren Liming

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17531/ein.2019.3.17

Warianty tytułu

PL

Model predykcji pozostałego czasu pracy stacji kosmicznej

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Space station is a very complex system, and its remaining useful life will be affected by the key equipment, cosmonauts’ maintenance activities as well as space environments. It is important for the operation management of a space station to predict its remaining useful life (RUL). A valid RUL prediction model is the key foundation for this issue, which motivates the research presented in this paper. Firstly, different types of space station life are defined. Secondly, the function and performance requirements as well as the operation mission program of the space station are analysed, which are further used to confirm the model development precondition. A life prediction model is then proposed by synthetically taking account of the safety, reliability and maintainability restrictions. Finally, the data requirement for supporting the RUL prediction is determined. Based on this work, a comprehensive procedure for RUL prediction model development is constructed for the operation management engineers of the space station. If the data of the development and operation is adequate, RUL prediction of the space station can be well implemented, and can be further leveraged to support the space station operation management.

PL

Stacja kosmiczna stanowi wysoce złożony system, którego pozostały czas pracy (ang. remaining useful time, RUL) zależy od kluczowego sprzętu, czynności konserwacyjnych przeprowadzanych przez kosmonautów, a także warunków panujących w kosmosie. Zarządzanie operacyjne stacją kosmiczną wymaga przewidywania RUL. Podstawą tego zagadnienia jest stworzenie prawidłowego modelu predykcji RUL, co jest przedmiotem niniejszej pracy. W artykule, w pierwszej kolejności, zdefiniowano różne kategorie czasu pracy stacji kosmicznej na orbicie. Następnie, przeanalizowano wymagania dotyczące funkcji i eksploatacji stacji a także program jej misji operacyjnych. Wyniki tych analiz wykorzystano do weryfikacji wstępnych warunków koniecznych do budowy modelu. W dalszej kolejności, zaproponowano model predykcji czasu pracy stacji, który w sposób syntetyczny uwzględnia ograniczenia dotyczące bezpieczeństwa, niezawodności i możliwości konserwacji. Na koniec określono rodzaje danych wspierających predykcję RUL. Na podstawie opisanych etapów prac skonstruowano kompleksową procedurę opracowywania modeli predykcji RUL dla inżynierów zarządzania operacyjnego pracujących na stacjach kosmicznych. Jeśli dane dotyczące rozwoju i operacji są prawidłowe, zaprojektowany algorytm predykcji pozostałego czasu pracy stacji kosmicznej można z powodzeniem zaimplementować, a także rozszerzyć tworząc skuteczne narzędzie wsparcia personelu zarządzającego pracą stacji kosmicznej.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

space station; remaining useful life prediction; key equipment; key activity; Monte Carlo simulation

PL

stacja kosmiczna; przewidywanie pozostałego czasu pracy; kluczowy sprzęt; kluczowe działania; symulacja Monte Carlo

• Wydawca: Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne
• Czasopismo: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 21, no. 3
• Strony: 501--510
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 42 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Li Xiaopeng

• Center for System Reliability and Safety School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Sichuan, 611731, P. R. China
• Reliability Department China Astronautics Standards Institute Beijing, 100071, P. R. China

autor

Huang Hong-Zhong

• Center for System Reliability and Safety School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Sichuan, 611731, P. R. China

autor

Li Fuqiu

• Reliability Department China Astronautics Standards Institute Beijing, 100071, P. R. China

autor

Ren Liming

• Reliability Department China Astronautics Standards Institute Beijing, 100071, P. R. China

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