Predicting automotive sales using pre-purchase online search data

Wachter, Philipp; Widmer, Tobias; Klein, Achim

doi:10.15439/2019F239

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Tytuł artykułu

Predicting automotive sales using pre-purchase online search data

Autorzy

Wachter Philipp , Widmer Tobias , Klein Achim

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

http://annals-csis.org

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15439/2019F239

Warianty tytułu

Konferencja

Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems (14 ; 01-04.09.2019 ; Leipzig, Germany)

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Sales forecasting is an essential element for implementing sustainable business strategies in the automotive industry. Accurate sales forecasts enhance the competitive edge of car manufacturers in the effort to optimize their production planning processes. We propose a forecasting technique that combines keyword-specific customer online search data with economic variables to predict monthly car sales. To isolate online search data related to pre-purchase information search, we follow a backward induction approach and identify those keywords that are frequently applied by search engine users. In a set of experiments using real-world sales data and Google Trends, we find that our keyword-specific forecasting technique reduces the out-of-sample error by 5\% as compared to existing techniques without systematic keyword selection. We also find that our regression models outperform the benchmark model by an out-of-sample prediction accuracy of up to 27%.

Słowa kluczowe

automotive manufacture consumer behaviour forecasting theory Internet purchasing regression analysis sales management statistical analysis

produkcja samochodów zachowania konsumentów teoria prognozowania Internet zakup analiza regresji zarządzanie sprzedażą analiza statystyczna

Wydawca

Polskie Towarzystwo Informatyczne

Czasopismo

Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems

Rocznik

2019

Tom

Vol. 18

Strony

569--577

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 50 poz., il., tab., wz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Wachter Philipp

philipp.wachter@unihohenheim.de

University of Hohenheim Schwerzstr. 35, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany

autor

Widmer Tobias

tobias.widmer@unihohenheim.de

University of Hohenheim Schwerzstr. 35, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany

autor

Klein Achim

achim.klein@unihohenheim.de

University of Hohenheim Schwerzstr. 35, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany

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Uwagi

1. Track 4: Information Systems and Technologies

2. Technical Session: 17th Conference on Advanced Information Technologies for Management

3. Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).

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