Integrated Impact Model on Critical Infrastructure Safety Related to Climate-Weather Change Process Including Extreme Weather Hazards

• Autorzy: Kołowrocki K. , Soszyńska-Budny J. , Torbicki M.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the paper a general safety analytical model of complex technical system related to the climateweather change process in its operating area is defined. First, the system operation at climate-weather variable conditions is given. Additionally, the semi-Markov approach is used. Further, the safety model of the multistate system at climate-weather variable conditions is introduced. The notions of the conditional safety functions at the climate-weather particular states, the unconditional safety function and the risk function of the complex system at changing in time climate-weather conditions are presented. The other safety indices like mean lifetime up to the exceeding a critical safety state, the moment when the risk function value exceeds the acceptable safety level, the intensities of ageing of the critical infrastructure and its components and the coefficients of the climate-weather impact on the critical infrastructure and its components intensities of ageing are defined.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change process; weather hazards; impact; model; safety

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 4
• Strony: 21--32
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Kołowrocki K.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Soszyńska-Budny J.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Torbicki M.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

• 1. EU-CIRCLE Report D2.1-GMU2, Modelling outside dependences influence on Critical Infrastructure Safety (CIS) - Modelling Critical Infrastructure Operation Process (CIOP) including Operating Environment Threats (OET), 2016
• 2. EU-CIRCLE Report D2.1-GMU3, Modelling outside dependences influence on Critical Infrastructure Safety (CIS) - Modelling Climate-Weather Change Process (C-WCP) including Extreme Weather Hazards (EWH), 2016
• 3. EU-CIRCLE Report D3.3-GMU3, Modelling inside and outside dependences influence on safety of complex multistate ageing systems (critical infrastructures) - Integrated Model of Critical Infrastructure Safety (IMCIS) related to its operation process including operating environment threats (with other critical infrastructures influence, without climate-weather change influence), 2016
• 4. EU-CIRCLE Report D3.3-GMU3-IMCIS Model1, Integrated Model of Critical Infrastructure Safety (IMCIS) Related to Its Operation Process (OP), Including Operating Environment Threats (OET), IMCIS Model 1, 2016
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• 6. Glynn P.W., Haas P.J., Laws of large numbers and functional central limit theorems for generalized semi-Markov processes. Stochastic Models,Vol. 22, No 2, 201-231, 2006
• 7. Grabski F., Semi-Markov Processes: Application in System Reliability and Maintenance, Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberd, London, New York, Oxford, Paris, San Diego, San Francisco, Singapore, Sidney, Tokyo, Elsevier, 2014
• 8. Kołowrocki K., Reliability of Large and Complex Systems, Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberd, London, New York, Oxford, Paris, San Diego, San Francisco, Singapore, Sidney, Tokyo, Elsevier, 2014
• 9. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J., Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes: Modeling - Identification - Prediction - Optimization, London, Dordrecht, Heildeberg, New York, Springer, 2011
• 10. Limnios N., Oprisan G., Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability. Birkhauser, Boston, 2005
• 11. Xue J., On multi-state system analysis, IEEE Trans on Reliab. 34, 329-337, 1985
• 12. Xue J., Yang K., Dynamic reliability analysis of coherent multi-state systems, IEEE Trans on Reliab. 4(44), 683-688, 1995a
• 13. Xue J., Yang K., Symmetric relations in multi-state systems, IEEE Trans on Reliab 4(44), 689-693, 1995

Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).