The Influence of the World Grain Market on Prevalence of Mankind’s Undernourishment in the Times of War on the Ukraine

Kozlovskyi, Serhii; Yousuf, Allam; Butenko, Vira; Kulinich, Tetiana; Bohdaniuk, Olena; Nikolenko, Liudmyla; Lavrov, Ruslan

doi:10.35784/preko.5748

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Tytuł artykułu

The Influence of the World Grain Market on Prevalence of Mankind’s Undernourishment in the Times of War on the Ukraine

Autorzy

Kozlovskyi Serhii , Yousuf Allam , Butenko Vira , Kulinich Tetiana , Bohdaniuk Olena , Nikolenko Liudmyla , Lavrov Ruslan

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DOI

10.35784/preko.5748

Warianty tytułu

Wpływ światowego rynku zbóż na występowanie niedożywienia ludzkości w czasie wojny na Ukrainie

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The world cereal production and supply as well as their trade, stock and losses are important indicators of the world market of cereals. They play a huge role in ensuring food security. The aim of this research is to identify the relation of the indicators of the world grain crops market (production, supply, losses, trade, stocks) and the level of malnutrition Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) among the world's population. Based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a correlation-regression analysis was conducted between indicators of the global grain crops market, in particular: the wheat market, the fodder market of grain crops, the rice market and PoU of the world population for the period 2013/14 – 2020/2021 marketing years. It has been proven that there is a close, statistically reliable relationship between the above mentioned indicators, except for grain stocks and POU. The analysis of the world cereal market showed that among the indicators characterizing its conditions, the indicator trade in grain crops (r = 0.851; D = 0.724; F = 3.968, (F > F t ); z = 1.26; rL = 0.37; rU = 0.97) has the highest level of correlation. It was found that with an increase in the volume of world cereal trade by 1 million tons, the PoU level will increase by 0.018%. A review of literary sources proves that the problem of ensuring food security, in particular with regard to reducing the level of starvation and malnutrition, cannot be solved only by fighting climate change, overcoming socio-economic and military problems, fighting pandemics, etc. Its solution to a large extent depends on fair, uniform export and import of food products, as evidenced by the calculations. A separate direction for solving the problem of the spread of malnutrition is the elimination of the policy of highly developed countries regarding the application of individual sanctions against countries with high PoU values, in particular, the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Haiti, Afghanistan, Chad, Congo, Lesotho, Liberia, Mozambique, etc.

Światowa produkcja i podaż zbóż, a także handel nimi, zapasy i straty są ważnymi wskaźnikami światowego rynku zbóż. Odgrywają ogromną rolę w zapewnieniu bezpieczeństwa żywnościowego. Celem badań jest identyfikacja zależności wskaźników światowego rynku zbóż (produkcja, podaż, straty, handel, zapasy) a poziomem niedożywienia (PoU) wśród ludności świata. Na podstawie danych Organizacji Narodów Zjednoczonych ds. Wyżywienia i Rolnictwa (FAO) przeprowadzono analizę korelacji-regresji pomiędzy wskaźnikami światowego rynku zbóż, w szczególności: rynkiem pszenicy, rynkiem paszowym zbóż, rynkiem rynek ryżu i PoU światowej populacji w latach gospodarczych 2013/14 – 2020/2021. Wykazano, że istnieje ścisła, statystycznie wiarygodna zależność pomiędzy wymienionymi wskaźnikami, z wyjątkiem zapasów zbóż i POU. Analiza światowego rynku zbóż wykazała, że wśród wskaźników charakteryzujących jego warunki znajduje się wskaźnik handlu zbożami (r = 0,851; D = 0,724; F = 3,968, (F > F t ); z = 1,26; rL = 0,37; rU = 0,97) wykazuje najwyższy poziomem korelacji. Stwierdzono, że wraz ze wzrostem wolumenu światowego handlu zbożami o 1 milion ton poziom PoU wzrośnie o 0,018%. Przegląd źródeł literackich dowodzi, że problemu zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa żywnościowego, w szczególności w zakresie ograniczenia poziomu głodu i niedożywienia, nie można rozwiązać jedynie poprzez walkę ze zmianami klimatycznymi, przezwyciężanie problemów społeczno-gospodarczych i militarnych, walkę z pandemiami itp. Jego rozwiązanie w dużej mierze zależy od sprawiedliwego, jednolitego eksportu i importu produktów spożywczych, co potwierdzają wyliczenia. Odrębnym kierunkiem rozwiązania problemu szerzenia się niedożywienia jest eliminowanie polityki krajów wysoko rozwiniętych w zakresie stosowania indywidualnych sankcji wobec krajów o wysokich wartościach PoU, w szczególności Republiki Środkowoafrykańskiej, Madagaskaru, Haiti, Afganistanu, Czadu, Kongo, Lesotho, Liberii i Mozambiku.

Słowa kluczowe

food security production supply trade losses stocks wheat fodder cereals rice malnutrition hunger regression analysis world grain market war

bezpieczeństwo żywnościowe produkcja zaopatrzenie handel straty zapasy pszenica zboża pastewne ryż niedożywienie głód analiza regresji światowy rynek zbóż wojna

Wydawca

Lublin University of Technology

Czasopismo

Problemy Ekorozwoju

Rocznik

2024

Tom

Vol. 19, no. 1

Strony

31--42

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 39 poz., fig., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Kozlovskyi Serhii

s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua

Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

autor

Yousuf Allam

Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890

autor

Butenko Vira

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392

autor

Kulinich Tetiana

Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080

autor

Bohdaniuk Olena

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933

autor

Nikolenko Liudmyla

Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968

autor

Lavrov Ruslan

T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

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