A probabilistic approach to assessing passenger survival in aircraft accidents near an airport area

• Autorzy: Soldatova Julija , Vinogradov Leonid , Shestakov Vladimir

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/tar-2024-0017

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study proposes a probabilistic model to assess the likelihood of passenger survival in fires resulting from aircraft accidents. The model evaluates the risk of passenger death in a fire, considering the type of aircraft and airline. By comparing the time available for passengers to fully evacuate a burning plane with the time required for evacuation using modern means and technologies, onboard rescue equipment, and the qualifications of crew members and rescue personnel, we introduce a comprehensive approach to quantify passenger survival rates. Additionally, the concept of the hazard coefficient is introduced, which accounts for factors such as cabin temperature and toxic components.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

aircraft; aviation incident; statistical model; probability of experiencing an aviation incident; probability of surviving an aviation incident

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwa Naukowe Sieci Badawczej Łukasiewicz - Instytutu Lotnictwa
• Czasopismo: Transactions on Aerospace Research
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Nr 3 (276)
• Strony: 77--85
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 10 poz., tab., wzory

Twórcy

autor

Soldatova Julija

• Riga Technical University, 1 Kalku street, Riga, LV-1658, Latvia

• https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4613-656X

autor

Vinogradov Leonid

• Riga Technical University, 1 Kalku street, Riga, LV-1658, Latvia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2257-8607

autor

Shestakov Vladimir

• Riga Technical University, 1 Kalku street, Riga, LV-1658, Latvia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6132-500X

Bibliografia

• [1] Rogachev AA, Veselago VR. Ensuring the safety of passengers in aviation accidents associated with aircraft fires. Problems of flight safety. 1981;(1):74-81.
• [2] Vinogradovs L. Varbūtības pieeja pasažieru izdzīvošanas novērtēšanai aviācijas negadījuma situācijā lidostas atbildības rajonā [A probabilistic approach to assessing passenger survival in an aviation incident in the airport area] [in Latvian]. Promocijas darba kopsavilkums. Rīga: RTU Izdevniecība; 2020. https://doi.org/10.7250/ 9789934225000.
• [3] Stolzer AJ. Safety Management Systems in Aviation. 2nd ed. Routledge; 2016. 396 p.
• [4] ICAO. Annex 14 Aerodromes. Charter 9 [Fundamental document].
• [5] Certification Specifications and Acceptable Means of Compliance for Large Aeroplanes CS-25. EASA; 2013. Amendment 14.
• [6] Safonov SK, Seleznev AV. Methodical instructions. Methods of calculating the forces and means of fire protection in the planning of airport fire and rescue operations on aircraft. Ulyanovsk: UVAU GA; 2012. 53 p.
• [7] Turko VP, Vinogradov LA, Ivakhnenko AA. Determination of the probability of passenger survival in an aviation incident with fire on the ground. Int J Adv Stud. 2016;3:106-19. https://doi.org/10.12731/2227-930X-2016-3-106-119
• [8] Suharev A, Shestakov V, Vinogradov L. Estimation of the time of the passenger evacuation in case of aircraft accidents with a fire in the airport area. Aviation [Internet]. 2018 [cited 2024 Jul 17]; Available from: https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/Aviation/article/view/2522.
• [9] Vinogradov L, Shestakov V, Urbaha H, Turko V, Koruba Z. Assessment of critical condition in the burning aircraft passengers cabin. In: 2nd Aviation and Space Congress II Kongres Lotniczy I Kosmonautyczny - KliK 2019; 2020 Sep 18-20; Kielce-Cedzyna.
• [10] Aviācijas drošības grupa. Gaisa kuģu glābšana un dzēšana [Aircraft rescue and fire fighting] [in Latvian]. Resurss aprakstīts 03.05.2017. Available from: http://aviationsafetyadvisorygroup.org/projects-initiatives/resource-guide-to-aircraft-fire-fighting-rescue/.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025)