Past and future annual droughts in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon

Guenang, G. M.; Komkoua Mbienda, A. J.; Kaissassou, S.; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Gounmene, M.; Tanessong, R. S.; Yepdo, Z.; Njinkeu, S. W.

doi:10.1007/s11600-023-01202-5

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Past and future annual droughts in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon

Autorzy

Guenang G. M. , Komkoua Mbienda A. J. , Kaissassou S. , Vondou Derbetini A. , Gounmene M. , Tanessong R. S. , Yepdo Z. , Njinkeu S. W.

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-023-01202-5

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

This paper studies the past and future annual droughts in the five agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Cameroon. Station data and model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used to compute areal datasets for each AEZ. Six statistical metrics and compromise programming method were used to evaluate and rank the models, respectively. The top three models were used to build multi-model ensemble (MME) and deduce bias-corrected MME data. They were then used to compute the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used as drought indicator. As a result, the performance of the models depends on the AEZ and decreases with the increase in drought intensity. The 1980s was the most marked by severe-extreme droughts and a significant increase in drought intensity was observed in the entire domain during the past period, the years 1974, 1985 and 1988 showing the highest drought intensities. The MME tends to overestimate and underestimate the frequencies and the magnitude of these events, respectively. Bias-corrected MME data improve the results in most cases. As for the period 2071-2099, all the AEZs are likely to experience severe-extreme droughts which are expected to be more frequent before 2083 in the North (AEZs 1 and 2) and after this year in the South (AEZs 3, 4 and 5). It is also expected a slight increasing trend of the mean spatial SPIs showing a slight decrease in drought intensity. The RCPs 8.5 and 2.6 project the lowest and the highest decrease in drought intensity, respectively, while the RCP4.5 shows an average decrease. This study highlights future periods and areas at potential risk of severe-extreme droughts and can guide decision-makers in mitigation and adaptation measures.

Słowa kluczowe

drought CMIP5 RCP emission scenarios multi-model ensemble compromise programming Cameroon

susza CMIP5 scenariusze emisji RCP zespół wielomodelowy programowanie kompromisowe Kamerun

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2024

Tom

Vol. 72, no. 3

Strony

2127--2140

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 63 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Guenang G. M.

merlin.guenang@yahoo.fr

Department of Physics, University of Dschang, Dschang, Cameroon

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5690-1834

autor

Komkoua Mbienda A. J.

Department of Physics, University of Dschang, Dschang, Cameroon
Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon
Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus salam ICTP, 34151 Trieste, Italy

autor

Kaissassou S.

Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon

autor

Vondou Derbetini A.

Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon

autor

Gounmene M.

Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon
Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon

autor

Tanessong R. S.

Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Advanced School of Agriculture, Forestry, Water Resources and Environment, University of Ebolowa, Ebolowa, Cameroon

autor

Yepdo Z.

National Institute for Cartography, Yaoundé, Cameroon

autor

Njinkeu S. W.

Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon

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