Electricity consumption and economic growth : a var model for the new economy of Pakistan

Kumar, Mukesh; Begam, Azeema; Nargis

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Electricity consumption and economic growth : a var model for the new economy of Pakistan

Autorzy

Kumar Mukesh , Begam Azeema , Nargis

Treść / Zawartość

Pełne teksty:

Kumar_M_Electricity_EPS_No.1(3)_2019.pdf

Pobierz

Identyfikatory

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The economy of Pakistan had always been plunged due to its severe electricity shortages over the last two decades and persistently faces challenges in revamping its electricity supply network. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is considered as a productive shock which has opened up new avenues for the energy sector in Pakistan. This study is an endeavor to incorporate the impact of such shock in the production function and to revisit the dynamics between electricity consumption and economic growth (ECEG) in the new economy of Pakistan for the time span of 1971-2018. The study has employed Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, including capital formation, labor participation, openness of the economy and financial development. The findings of the study affirmed the neutrality hypothesis while cointegration estimates jagged long run effectiveness for ECEG nexus. Keeping in view the internal and external bottlenecks, it is thus recommended to revise the ECEG model for the new economy of Pakistan keeping in view the revival of industrial sector removing the inefficiencies of the power sector.

Słowa kluczowe

Electricity Consumption Economic Growth CPEC VAR Model

Wydawca

Instytut Polityki Energetycznej im. Ignacego Łukasiewicza

Czasopismo

Energy Policy Studies

Rocznik

2019

Tom

No. 1 (3)

Strony

17--40

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 50 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Kumar Mukesh

Institute of Business Management, Karachi

autor

Begam Azeema

SMEDA, Karachi

autor

Nargis

SMEDA, Karachi

Bibliografia

1. Akinlo, A. E., Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara African countries, Energy economics, Vol. 30, Issue 5, p. 2391-2400, 2008
2. Ali, S. S., Badar, S., Dynamics of circular debt in Pakistan and its resolution, The Lahore Journal of Economics, Vol. 15, p. 61-74, 2010
3. Altinay, G., Karagol, E., Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey, Energy economics, Vol. 27, Issue 6, p. 849-856, 2005
4. Apergis, N., Payne, J. E., Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from a panel of OECD countries, Energy policy, Vol. 38, Issue 1, p. 656-660, 2010
5. Aqeel, A., Butt, M. S., The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(2), p. 101-110, 2001
6. Asafu-Adjaye, J., The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries, Energy economics, Vol. 22, Issue 6, p.615-625, 2000
7. Asghar, Z., Energy-GDP relationship: a causal analysis for the five countries of South Asia, Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 8, Issue 1, 2008
8. Asian Development Bank Report 2019, Pakistan: ADB’s Pakistan: ADB’s Support to Pakistan Energy Sector (2005-2017), htttps://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/.../space-pakistan-energy.pdf, [access: 15.7.2019]
9. Asmah, E. E., Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Ghana. American Journal of Economics, Vol.3, Issue 6, p. 291-302, 2013
10. Atif, S. M.,Siddiqi, M. W., The electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Pakistan: A new evidence (2010), https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=1569580, Available at SSRN 1569580, [access: 25.7.2019]
11. Berndt, E. R., Wood, D. O., Technology, prices, and the derived demand for energy. The review of Economics and Statistics, p. 259-268, 1975
12. Dogan, E., Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 4, Issue 2, p. 154-162, 2014
13. Fang, S., Jia, R., Tu, W., Sun, Z., Research on the influencing factors of comprehensive water consumption by impulse response function analysis, Water, Vol. 9, Issue 1, p. 18, 2017
14. Griffin, J. M., & Gregory, P. R., An intercountry translog model of energy substitution responses, The American Economic Review, Vol. 66, Issue 5, p. 845-857, 1976
15. Hoffman, D. L.,Rasche, R. H., Assessing forecast performance in a cointegrated system, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 11, Issue 5, p. 495-517, 1996
16. Kazmi, S. T. H., ur Rehman, I., Nasrullah, A., China’s journey in renewable energy and its potential spillover effects through the CPEC in Pakistan (2016), https://www.pide.org.pk/psde/pdf/AGM32/papers/China%20Journey%20in%Renewable.pdf, [access : 5.8.2019]
17. Khan, S., Jam, F. A., Shahbaz, M., Mamun, M. A., Electricity consumption, economic growth and trade openness in Kazakhstan: evidence from cointegration and causality. OPEC Energy Review, Vol. 42, Issue 3, p. 224-243, 2018
18. Kilian, L.,Lütkepohl, H., Structural vector autoregressive analysis. Cambridge University Press, 2017
19. Kraft, J., Kraft, A., On the relationship between energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, p. 401-403, 1978
20. Lee, C. C., Chang, C. P., Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: a more comprehensive analysis using panel data, Resource and energy Economics, Vol. 30, Issue 1, p. 50-65, 2008
21. Mehrara, M., Energy consumption and economic growth: the case of oil exporting countries, Energy policy, Vol. 35, Issue 5, p. 2939-2945, 2007
22. Ministry of Finance, Report 2019, Pakistan Economic Survey 2018-19, www.finance.gov.pk/, [access: 30.5.2019]
23. Nadeem, S., Munir, K., Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan (2016): A Sectoral Analysis, https://mpra.ub.uni_muench.de/745691/1/MPRA_74569.pdf, [access: 15.7.2019]
24. Nawaz, S., Iqbal, N., Anwar, S., Electricity demand in Pakistan: a nonlinear estimation, The Pakistan Development Review, p. 479-491, 2013
25. Nelson, C. R., Plosser, C. R., Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.10, Issue 2, p. 139-162, 1982
26. Odhiambo, N. M., Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach, Energy policy, Vol. 37, Issue 2, p. 617-622, 2009
27. Odhiambo, N. M., Electricity consumption, labour force participation rate and economic growth in Kenya: An empirical investigation. Problems and Perspectives in Management, Vol.8, Issue 1, p. 31-38, 2010
28. Omay, T., Hasanov, M., Ucar, N., Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from nonlinear panel cointegration and causality tests, Прикладная зконометрика, Vol. 2, Issue 3, 2014
29. Paul, S.,Bhattacharya, R. N. Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results, Energy economics, Vol. 26, Issue 6, p. 977-983, 2004
30. Pempetzoglou, M., Electricity consumption and economic growth: A linear and nonlinear causality investigation for Turkey, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 4, Issue 2, p. 263-273, 2014
31. Razzaqi, S., Bilquees, F., Sherbaz, S.,Dynamic relationship between energy and economic growth: evidence from D8 countries, The Pakistan Development Review, p. 437-458, 2011
32. Sargent, T.J., Observations on improper methods of simulating and teaching Friedman’s time series consumption model. International Economic Review, p. 445-462, 1977
33. Sehrawat, M., Giri, A. K., Mohapatra, G., The impact of financial development, economic growth and energy consumption on environmental degradation: Evidence from India. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, Vol. 26, Issue 5, p. 666-682, 2015
34. Shahbaz, M., Feridun, M., Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan. Quality & Quantity, Vol 46, Issue 5, p. 1583-1599, 2012
35. Shahbaz, M., Lean, H. H., The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan, Energy, Vol. 39, Issue 1, p. 146-153, 2012
36. Shahbaz, M., Tang, C. F., Shabbir, M. S., Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches, Energy policy, Vol. 39, Issue 6, p. 3529-3536, 2011
37. Shahbaz, M., Tang, C. F., Shabbir, M. S., Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches. Energy policy, Vol. 39, Issue 6, p. 3529-3536, 2011
38. Shahbaz, M., Van Hoang, T. H., Mahalik, M. K., Roubaud, D., Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis, Energy Economics, Vol. 63, p. 199-212, 2017
39. Solarin, S. A., Shahbaz, M., Shahzad, S. J. H., Revisiting the electricity consumption-economic growth nexus in Angola: The role of exports, imports and urbanization, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 6, Issue 3, p. 501-512, 2016
40. Soytas, U., Sari, R., Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets, Energy economics, Vol. 25, Issue 1, p. 33-37, 2003
41. Soytas,U., Sari,R., Ozdemir, O., Energy consumption and GDP relation in Turkey: a cointegration and vector error correction analysis. Economies and business in transition: facilitating competitiveness and change in the global environment proceedings, Vol.1, p.834-844, 2001
42. Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 4, p. 351-394, 1989
43. To, H., Wijeweera, A., Charles, M. B., Energy consumption and economic growth-The case of Australia (2012), Business School, Southern Cross University
44. Ulrichs, M., Identification of financial and macroeconomic shocks in a VAR model of the Polish economy. A stability analysis, Economics and Business Review, Vol. 4, Issue 1, p. 29-43, 2018
45. World Bank Open Data 2019, World Bank Indicators, https://data.worldbank.org >indicator, [access: 5.7.2019]
46. Yasar, N., The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from different income country groups. International journal of energy economics and policy, Vol. 7, Issue 2, p. 86-97, 2017
47. Yasmin, B., Qamar, W., The role of power generation and industrial consumption uncertainty in Deindustrialising Pakistan, The Pakistan Development Review, p. 517-534, 2013
48. Zeshan, M., Ahmad, V., Energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan. Bulletin of Energy Economics, Vol. 1, Issue 2, p. 8-20, 2013
49. Zhang, X. P., Cheng, X. M., Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China. Ecological Economics, Vol. 68, Issue 10, p. 2706-2712, 2009
50. Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W, Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, Journal of the Econometric Society, p. 251-276, 1987

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-5b8b2d73-67e2-4585-a522-e120aede2f21