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Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the Local Ionospheric Critical Frequency: A Mid-latitude Single-Station Model for Use in Forecasting

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma
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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF2 monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF2 on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF2 values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Strony
810--824
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 17 poz.
Twórcy
  • Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
  • Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Bibliografia
  • Bilitza, D. (2001), International Reference Ionosphere 2000, Radio Sci. 36, 2, 261- 275, DOI: 10.1029/2000RS002432.
  • De Franceschi, G., and A. De Santis (1994), PASHA: regional long-term predictions of ionospheric parameters by ASHA, Ann. Geophys. 37, 2, 209-220, DOI: 10.4401/ag-4228.
  • Fox, M.W., and L.F. McNamara (1988), Improved world-wide maps of monthly median foF2, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 50, 12, 1077-1086, DOI: 10.1016/0021- 9169(88)90096-7.
  • IRI (2012), The International Reference Ionosphere project, http://irimodel.org/.
  • Jodogne, J.C., and S.M. Stankov (2002), Ionosphere-plasmasphere response to geomagnetic storms studied with the RMI-Dourbes comprehensive database, Ann. Geophys. 45, 5, 629-647, DOI: 10.4401/ag-3529.
  • Liu, L., W. Wan, and B. Ning (2004), Statistical modeling of ionospheric foF2 over Wuhan, Radio Sci. 39, 2, DOI: 10.1029/2003RS003005.
  • Mikhailov, A.V., V.V. Mikhailov, and M.G. Skoblin (1996), Monthly median foF2 and M(3000)F2 ionospheric model over Europe, Ann. Geophys. 39, 4, DOI: 10.4401/ag-4019.
  • Montgomery, D.C., C.L. Jennings, and M. Kulahci (2008), Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Wiley, New York.
  • Moraitis, G., Z. Kecic, and L. Cander (1991), Ionospheric modelling at single stations. In: Proc. III PRIME Workshop, 21-25 January 1991, Rome, Italy, 154-160.
  • Muhtarov, P., and I. Kutiev (1998), Geomagnetically correlated statistical model (GCSM) for short-term prediction of ionospheric parameters. In: Proc. 2nd COST251 Workshop “Algorithms and Models for COST251 Final Product”, 30-31 March 1998, Side, Turkey, 246-251.
  • Muhtarov, P., I. Kutiev, L.R. Cander, B. Zolesi, G. de Franceschi, M. Levy, and M. Dick (2001), European ionospheric forecast and mapping, Phys. Chem. Earth C 26, 5, 347-351, DOI: 10.1016/S1464-1917(01)00011-3.
  • Pancheva, D.V., and P.Y. Mukhtarov (1996), A single-station spectral model of the monthly median F-region critical frequency, Ann. Geophys. 39, 4, 807-818, DOI: 10.4401/ag-4020.
  • Stamper, R., A. Belehaki, D. Buresová, L.R. Cander, I. Kutiev, M. Pietrella, I. Stanisławska, S. Stankov, I. Tsagouri, and Y.K. Tulunay (2004), Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: tools and methods, Ann. Geophys. 47, 2-3 Suppl., 957-983, DOI: 10.4401/ag-3281.
  • Stanisławska, I. (1994), A single-station prediction model as a contribution to instantaneous mapping, Ann. Geophys. 37, 2, 153-157, DOI: 10.4401/ag- 4222.
  • Stankov, S.M., J.-C. Jodogne, I. Kutiev, K. Stegen, and R. Warnant (2012), Evaluation of automatic ionogram scaling for use in real-time ionospheric density profile specification: Dourbes DGS-256/ARTIST-4 performance, Ann. Geophys. 55, 2, 283-291, DOI: 10.4401/ag-4976.
  • Xu, T., Z. Wu, J. Wu, G. Wei, and J. Feng (2008), A single-station spectral model of the monthly median foF2 over Chongqing, China, Ann. Geophys. 51, 4, 609-618, DOI: 10.4401/ag-3022.
  • Zolesi, B., L.R. Cander, and G. De Franceschi (1993), Simplified ionospheric regional model for telecommunication applications, Radio Sci. 28, 4, 603- 612, DOI: 10.1029/93RS00276.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-5aa69569-de29-4d97-b68d-0028cc591d90
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