Zastosowanie danych syntetycznych do badania wpływu zmian klimatu na zasoby wodne zlewni

• Autorzy: Kuchar L. , Iwański S. , Jelonek L. , Szalińska W.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Application of synthetic data for assessment of climate change impact on water resources of basin

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Modele hydrologiczne opad-odpływ czy rolnicze opad-plon wymagają na wejściu określony zbiór danych meteorologicznych. Problem braku takich danych bądź ich niekompletność mogą zostać rozwiązane przez uzyskanie danych syntetycznych. Jest to konieczne w badaniach nad wpływem zmian klimatu, gdzie do badań wykorzystuje się dane wygenerowane za pomocą modeli symulujących potencjalne wartości wybranych zmiennych meteorologicznych. W pracy przedstawiono proces przygotowania syntetycznych danych do modelu opad-odpływ dla aktualnych warunków klimatycznych oraz spełniających założenia scenariuszy zmiany klimatu. Przeprowadzono weryfikację uzyskanych danych generowanych. Dane zostały wykorzystane do przeprowadzenie oceny wpływ zmian klimatycznych na 2080 rok według scenariusza emisyjnego A1B oraz modelu cyrkulacyjnego HadCM3.

EN

Hydrological rainfall-runoff models and agricultural rainfall-yield need at input a specific set of meteorological data. The problem of the absence of such data or their incompleteness can be solved by synthetic data. This is necessary in studies on the effects of climate change, where the research uses data from weather generator that simulate the possible values of selected meteorological variables. The paper presents the process of preparing synthetic data for rainfall-runoff model for current climatic conditions and satisfying the assumptions of climate change scenarios. A verification of the generated data was also presented. The obtain data were used to assess the impact of climate change on the year 2080 according to the emission scenario A1B and circulation model HadCM3.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

generowanie danych meteorologicznych; model opad-odpływ; scenariusze zmiany klimatu; zlewnia rzeki Kaczawy

EN

weather generator; downscaling; rainfall-runoff model; climate change; Kaczawa river basin

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: Vol. 23, No. 4
• Strony: 332--346
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 58 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Kuchar L.

• Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy we Wrocławiu, Katedra Matematyki, ul. C.K. Norwida 25/27, 50-375 Wrocław, Poland

autor

Iwański S.

• Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy we Wrocławiu, Katedra Matematyki, ul. C.K. Norwida 25/27, 50-375 Wrocław, Poland

autor

Jelonek L.

• Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej Oddział we Wrocławiu, ul. Parkowa 30, 51-616 Wrocław, Poland

autor

Szalińska W.

• Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej Oddział we Wrocławiu, ul. Parkowa 30, 51-616 Wrocław, Poland

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