The analysis of spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the multiyears 1981–2010

• Autorzy: Grzywna Antoni , Bochniak Andrzej , Ziernicka-Wojtaszek Agnieszka , Krużel Joanna , Jóźwiakowski Krzysztof , Wałęga Andrzej , Ciupak Agnieszka , Mazur Andrzej , Obroślak Radomir , Serafin Artur

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/jwld.2020.134202

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the years 1981–2010. The average annual rainfall was 607 mm. Precipitation in Poland is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. The lowest annual precipitation was recorded in the central part of the country, where they equaled 500 mm. The highest annual precipitation totals were determined in the south, equaling 970 mm. The average precipitation in the summer half-year is 382 mm (63% of the annual total). On the basis of data from 53 climate stations, maps were made of the spatial distribution of precipitation for the period of the year and winter and summer half-year. The kriging method was used to map rainfall distribution in Poland. In the case study, cross-validation was used to compare the prediction performances of three periods. Kriging, with exponential type of semivariogram, gave the best performance in the statistical sense. Their application is justices especially in areas where landform is very complex. In accordance with the assumptions, the mean prediction error (ME), mean standardized prediction error (MSE), and root mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSE) values are approximately zero, and root-mean-square prediction error (RMSE) and average standard error (ASE) reach values well below 100.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; kriging; Poland; precipitation; spatial variability; water resources

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: no. 46
• Strony: 105--111
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 35 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Grzywna Antoni

• University of Life Science in Lublin, Faculty of Production Engineering, Leszczyńskiego St. 7, 20-069 Lublin, Poland

autor

Bochniak Andrzej

• University of Life Science in Lublin, Faculty of Production Engineering, Leszczyńskiego St. 7, 20-069 Lublin, Poland

autor

Ziernicka-Wojtaszek Agnieszka

• University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production Engineering, Kraków, Poland

autor

Krużel Joanna

• University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production Engineering, Kraków, Poland

autor

Jóźwiakowski Krzysztof

• University of Life Science in Lublin, Faculty of Production Engineering, Leszczyńskiego St. 7, 20-069 Lublin, Poland

autor

Wałęga Andrzej

• University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production Engineering, Kraków, Poland

autor

Ciupak Agnieszka

• University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production Engineering, Kraków, Poland

autor

Mazur Andrzej

• University of Life Science in Lublin, Faculty of Production Engineering, Leszczyńskiego St. 7, 20-069 Lublin, Poland

autor

Obroślak Radomir

• University of Life Science in Lublin, Faculty of Production Engineering, Leszczyńskiego St. 7, 20-069 Lublin, Poland

autor

Serafin Artur

• University of Life Science in Lublin, Faculty of Production Engineering, Leszczyńskiego St. 7, 20-069 Lublin, Poland

Bibliografia

• BANASZKIEWICZ B., GRABOWSKA K., SZWEJKOWSKI Z. 2008. Characterisation of variability of atmospheric precipitation at selected stations of the Mazury Lake district in the years 1951–2000. Acta Agrophysica. Vol. 12. Iss. 1 p. 19–27.
• BEREZOWSKI T., SZCZÉSNIAK M., KARDEL I., MICHAŁOWSKI R., OKRUSZKO T., MEZGHANI A., PINIEWSKI M. 2016. CPLFD-GDPT5: High-resolution gridded daily precipitation and temperature data set for two largest Polish river basins. Earth System Science Data. Vol. 8. Iss. 1 p. 127–139. DOI 10.5194/ essdd-8-1021-2015.
• CZARNECKA M., NIDZGORSKA-LENCEWICZ J. 2012. Wieloletnia zmienność sezonowych opadów w Polsce [Multiannual variability of seasonal precipitation in Poland]. Woda-Środowisko-Obszary Wiejskie. T. 12. Z. 2 p. 45–60.
• DAWIDEK J., FERENCZ B. 2014. Water balance of selected flood-plain lake basins in the Middle Bug River valley. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. Vol. 18 p. 1457–1465. DOI 10.5194/hess-18-1457-2014.
• DEGIRMENDŽIĆ J., KOŻUCHOWSKI K., ŻMUDZKA E. 2004. Changes of air temperature and precipitation in Poland in the period 1951–2000 and their relationship to atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology. Vol. 24. Iss. 3 p. 291–310. 10.1002/joc.1010.
• FARRENY R., GABARRELL X., RIERADEVALL J. 2011. Costefficiency of rainwater harvesting strategies in dense Mediterranean neighbourhoods. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. Vol. 55 p. 686–694. DOI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2011. 01.008.
• FENG Q., LIU Y., MIKAMI M. 2004. Geostatistical analysis of soil moisture variability in grassland. Journal of Arid Environments. Vol.58 (3) p. 357–372. 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2003.08. 002.
• GERMANN U., JOSS J. 2001.Variograms of radar reflectivity to describe the spatial continuity of alpine precipitation. Journal of Applied Meteorology. Vol. 40. Iss. 6 p. 1042–1059. DOI 10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1042:VORRTD>2.0.CO;2.
• GONG G., MATTEVADA S., O'BRYANT S.E. 2014. Comparison of the accuracy of kriging and IDW interpolations in estimating groundwater arsenic concentrations in Texas. Environmental Research. Vol. 130 p. 59–69. DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2013. 12.005.
• GOOVAERTS P. 2000. Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 228. Iss. 1–2 p. 113–129. DOI 10.1016/ S0022-1694(00)00144-X.
• GRZYWNA A., CZARNECKI Z., WĘGOREK T. 2016a. Ocena elementów składowych bilansu wodnego na odwodnionym torfowisku [Assessment of components of the water balance of drained peatbog]. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. T. 18(1) p. 519–530.
• GRZYWNA A., KAMIŃSKA A., BOCHNIAK A. 2016b. Analysis of spatial variability in the depth of the water table in grassland areas. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. T. 18(1) p. 291–302.
• HADI S. J., TOMBUL M. 2018. Comparison of spatial interpolation methods of precipitation and temperature using multiple integration periods. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing. Vol. 46 p. 1187–1199.
• ILNICKI P., FARAT R., GÓRECKI K., LEWANDOWSKI P. 2012. Mit stepowienia Wielkopolski w świetle wieloletnich badań obiegu wody [The myth of Wielkopolska's steppe in the light of many years of research into the water cycle]. Poznań. Wydaw. Uniwersytetu Przyrodniczego w Poznaniu. ISBN 978-83-7160-672-4 pp. 398.
• IPCC 2008. Technical Paper VI. In: Climate change and water. Eds. B.C Bates., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, J.P. Palutikof. Geneva. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Secretariat pp. 210.
• KIRSCHENSTEIN M., BARANOWSKI D. 2005. Sumy opadów atmosferycznych w Polsce w latach 1951–1995 [Precipitation totals in Poland for the 1951–1995 period]. Badania Fizjograficzne nad Polską Zachodnią. Ser. A. Geografia Fizyczna. T. 56 p. 55–72.
• KREŠIĆ N., MIKSZEWSKI A. 2013. Hydrogeological conceptual site models: data analysis and visualization. CRC Press, Boca Raton FL. ISBN 9781439852224 pp. 600.
• LAKHANKAR T., JONES A.S., COMBS C.L., SENGUPTA M., VONDER HAAR T.H., KHANBILVARDI R. 2010. Analysis of large scale spatial variability of soil moisture using a geostatistical method. Sensors. Vol. 10. Iss. 1 p. 913–932. DOI 10.3390/ s100100913.
• LORENC H. 2005. Atlas klimatu Polski [Climate atlas of Poland]. Warszawa. Wydaw. IMGW. ISBN 83-88897-43-8 pp. 116.
• MAGER P., KASPROWICZ T., FARAT R. 2009. Change of air temperature and precipitation in Poland in 1966–2006. In: Climate change and agriculture in Poland – impacts, mitigation and adaptation measures. Ed. J. Leśny. Acta Agrophysica. Rozprawy i Monografie. Vol. 169. Iss. 1 p. 19–38.
• MENG Q.M., LIU Z.J., BORDERS B.E. 2013. Assessment of regression kriging for spatial interpolation – comparisons of seven GIS interpolation methods. Cartography and Geographic Information Science. Vol. 40. Iss. 1 p. 28–39. DOI 10.1080/ 15230406.2013.762138.
• MORIASI D.N., ARNOLD J.G., VAN LIEW M.W., BINGNER R.L., HARMEL R.D., VEITH T.L. 2007. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. Vol. 50(3) p. 885–900. DOI 10.13031/2013.23153.
• NAMYSŁOWSKA-WILCZYŃSKA B. 2006. Geostatystyka. Teoria i zastosowania [Geostatistics. Theory and applications]. Wrocław. Ofic. Wydaw. PWroc. ISBN 83-7085-928-3 pp. 356.
• OTOP I. 2010. Precipitation variability in the middle Odra River basin in the years 1951–2005. In: Climate change research. Ed. J. Leśny. Acta Agrophysica. Rozprawy i Monografie. Vol. 183. Iss. 4 p. 50–59.
• SINGH G., MISHRA D., SINGH K., PARMAR R. 2013. Effects of rainwater harvesting on plant growth, soil water dynamics and herbaceous biomass during rehabilitation of degraded hills in Rajasthan, India. Forest Ecology and Management. Vol. 310 p. 612–622. DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.002.
• STASIK R., SZAFRAŃSKI C., LIBERACKI D., KORYTOWSKI M. 2008. Ocena wybranych składników bilansów wodnych małych zlewni leśnych o zróżnicowanych warunkach siedliskowych [Evaluation of selected water balance components in two small lowland catchments of different forest habitats]. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. T. 10 p. 557–565.
• SZWED M. 2019. Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Vol. 135 p. 1003–1015.
• SZYMANOWSKI M., WIECZOREK M., NAMYŚLAK M., KRYZA M., MIGAŁA K. 2019. Spatio-temporal changes in atmospheric precipitation over south-western Poland between the periods 1891–1930 and 1981–2010. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Vol. 135 p. 505–518.
• TWARDOSZ R., NIEDŹWIEDŹ T., ŁUPIKASZA E. 2011. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the type of precipitation (Kraków, southern Poland). Theoretical and Applied Climatology. No. 104 p. 233–250.
• UYAN M., CAY T. 2013. Spatial analyses of groundwater level differences using geostatistical modeling. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. Vol. 20 p. 633–646. DOI 10.1007/ s10651-013-0238-3.
• WANG L., YU F. 2019. Jackknife resample method for precision estimation of weighted total least squares. Communications in Statistics – Simulation and Computation. DOI 10.1080/ 03610918.2019.1580727.
• ZAWADZKI J. 2011. Metody geostatystyczne dla kierunków przyrodniczych i technicznych [Geostatistical methods for natural and technical subjects]. Warszawa. Ofic. Wydaw. PW. ISBN 978-83-7207-953-4 pp. 132.
• ZAWORA T., ZIERNICKA A. 2003. Precipitation variability in time in Poland in the light of multi-annual mean values (1891–2000). Studia Geograficzne. Nr 75. Acta Universitatis Wratislaviensis. Vol. 2542 p. 123–128.
• ZIERNICKA-WOJTASZEK A. 2006. Zmienność opadów atmosferycznych na obszarze Polski w latach 1971–2000. W: Klimatyczne aspekty środowiska geograficznego [Precipitation variability in Poland during the period of 1971–2000. In: Climatic aspects of the geographical environment]. Ed. J. Trepińska, Z. Olecki. Kraków. Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennej UJ p. 139–148.
• ŻMUDZKA E. 2002. O zmienności opadów atmosferycznych na obszarze Polski nizinnej w drugiej połowie XX wieku [On a variability of atmospheric precipitation over Polish Lowlands in the second half of XXth century]. Wiadomości IMGW. T. 25(46). Nr 4 p. 23–38.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).