Identification and prediction of maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards

• Autorzy: Kuligowska E.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper is concerned with an application of the model of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards to identification and prediction of this process for the maritime ferry. There are investigated four processes for the considered maritime ferry operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the operation process including operating environment threats and the climate-weather change processes for the maritime ferry operating area, there are determined the unknown parameters of these processes. Namely, the probabilities of the ferry processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the ferry processes transitions between the states and the mean values of the ferry processes conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards at the distinguished operating areas.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate-weather change process; identification; prediction; operating environment threats; maritime ferry

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 2
• Strony: 145--156
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 7 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Kuligowska E.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

• 1. EU-CIRCLE Report D2.1-GMU3. (2016). Modelling Climate-Weather Change Process Including Extreme Weather Hazards.
• 2. EU-CIRCLE Report D3.3-GMU3-CIOP Model2. (2016). Critical Infrastructure Operation Process (CIOP) Including Operating Environment Threats (OET) Model2.
• 3. EU-CIRCLE Report D3.3-GMU3-C-WCP. (2016). Critical Infrastructure Operating Area Climate-Weather Change Process (C-WCP) Including Extreme Weather Hazards (EWH) C-WCP Model.
• 4. EU-CIRCLE Report D6.4-GMU1. (2017). Critical Infrastructure Operation Process General Model (CIOPGM) Application to Maritime Ferry Operation Process Related to Operating Environment Threats (OET) and Extreme Weather Hazards (EWH).
• 5. Kołowrocki, K. & Soszyńska-Budny, J. (2017). Integrated impact model on critical infrastructure safety related to its operation process including operating environment threat and climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 2, 59-84.
• 6. Kołowrocki, K., Soszyńska-Budny, J. & Torbicki, M. (2017a). Critical infrastructure operation process related to operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 2, 39-58.
• 7. Kołowrocki, K., Soszyńska-Budny, J. & Torbicki, M. (2017b). Identification and prediction of maritime ferry operation process related to climate-weather Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, Volume 8, Number 2, 2017 change, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 2.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).