The impact of weather on bicycle risk exposure

• Autorzy: Pazdan Sylwia

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0014.5629

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Traffic volume is the main independent variable of risk exposure in road safety models. Cyclists as a vulnerable road users are more exposed to weather conditions than e.g. car drivers. As a result, their decision of whether to cycle is strongly related to weather conditions. It suggests that any change in the weather may have a significant effect on bicycle use. Objective of the paper was to indicate which weather parameters have a significant impact on bicycle use, how a change in weather parameters affects the change in bicycle volume (risk exposure) and, consequently, predicted number of crashes with cyclists and which factors differentiate the impact of weather conditions on bicycle volume. The impact of weather on bicycle volume variability was estimated based on literature review. The Web of Science, Scopus and TRID databases were searched. Finally, 33 papers from 1977 up to 2020, different in terms of the methodology used, country of origin, and analyzed group of cyclists, were reviewed. The impact of change in weather conditions on the predicted number of crashes with cyclists was estimated using own road safety models and previous research results. Results indicate that air temperature, precipitation, sunshine, cloud cover, humidity, and wind strength, have a significant influence on bicycle use. The impact of the weather on bicycle volume differs between different cyclists’ groups (different levels of experience, age, gender), trip motivations (recreational, commuting, etc.) and locations (countries, cities, climate zones). The paper shows complexity of impact of weather conditions on cycling and sensitivity of relationship between weather conditions and bicycle volume (i.e. risk exposure) and, as a consequence, bicycle safety. Results indicate that weather conditions should always be taken into consideration when analyzing cycling, especially in road safety analysis. The discussion of presented research results, research methods used with their limitations, and recommendations for future research were described.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

cycling; bicycle demand; impact weather; traffic volume; bicycle road safety

PL

jazda rowerem; wpływ pogody; natężenie ruchu; bezpieczeństwo

• Wydawca: Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Transport
• Czasopismo: Archives of Transport
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 56, iss. 4
• Strony: 89--105
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 43 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Pazdan Sylwia

• Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, Krakow, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] Ahmed, F., Rose, G., & Jacob, C. (2010). Impact of weather on commuter cyclist behaviour and implications for climate change adaptation. ATRF 2010: 33rd Australasian Transport Research Forum, pp. 1-19.
• [2] Ahmed, F., Rose, G., & Jacob, C. (2013). Commuter Cyclist Travel Behavior: Examination of the Impact of Changes in Weather. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2387, pp. 76-82.
• [3] Amoh-Gyimah, R., Saberi, M., & Sarvi, M. (2016). Macroscopic modeling of pedestrian and bicycle crashes: A cross-comparison of estimation methods. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 93, pp. 147-159.
• [4] An, R., Zahnow, R., Pojani, D., & Corcoran, J. (2019). Weather and cycling in New York: The case of Citibike. Journal of Transport Geography, 77, pp. 97-112.
• [5] Ashqar, H. I., Elhenawy, M., & Rakha, H. A. (2019). Modeling bike counts in a bike-sharing system considering the effect of weather conditions. Case Studies on Transport Policy. Elsevier, 7(2), pp. 261–268.
• [6] Bergström, A., & Magnusson, R. (2003). Potential of transferring car trips to bicycle during winter. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 37, pp. 649-666.
• [7] Brandenburg, C., Matzarakis, A., & Arnberger, A. (2007). Weather and cycling – a first approach to the effects of weather conditions on cycling. Meteorological Applications, 14, pp. 61-67.
• [8] Buehler, R., & Pucher, J. (2012). Cycling to work in 90 large American cities: new evidence on the role of bike paths and lanes. Transportation, 39, pp. 409-432.
• [9] Corcoran, J., Li, T., Rohde, D., Charles-Edwards, E., & Mateo-Babiano, D. (2014). Spatio-temporal patterns of a Public Bicycle Sharing Program: the effect of weather and calendar events. Journal of Transport Geography, 41, pp. 292-305.
• [10] Dill, J., & Carr, T. (2003). Bicycle commuting and facilities in major US cities: If you build them, commuters will use them – another look. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1828, pp. 116-123.
• [11] Ermagun, A., Lindsey, G., & Hadden Loh, T. (2018). Urban trails and demand response to weather variations. Transportation Research Part D, 63, pp. 404-420.
• [12] Flynn, B. S., Dana, G. S., Sears, J., & Aultman-Hall, L. (2012). Weather factor impacts on commuting to work by bicycle. Preventive Medicine, 54, pp. 122-124.
• [13] Gaca, S. (2002). Regression models of accidents. Archives of Transport, 14(3), pp. 17-30.
• [14] Gallop, C., Tse, C., & Zhao, J. (2012). A Seasonal Autoregressive Model of Vancouver Bicycle Traffic Using Weather Variables. Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting, pp. 1-17.
• [15] Gebhart, K., & Noland, R. B. (2014). The impact of weather conditions on bikeshare trips in Washington, DC. Transportation, 41, pp. 1205-1225.
• [16] Hanson, S., & Hanson, P. (1977). Evaluating the Impact of Weather on Bicycle Use. Transportation Research Record, 629, pp. 43-48.
• [17] Kienteka, M., de Camargo, E. M., Fermino, R. C., & Reis, R. S. (2018). Quantitative and qualitative aspects of barriers to bicycle use for adults from Curitiba, Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Cineantropometria e Desempenho Humano, 20(1), pp. 29-42.
• [18] Kim, J., Kim, S., Ulfarsson, G. F., & Porrello, L. A. (2007). Bicyclist injury severities in bicycle – motor vehicle accidents. 39, pp. 238-251.
• [19] Klop, J. R., & Khattak, A. J. (1999). Factors influencing bicycle crash severity on two-lane, undivided roadways in North Carolina. Transporation Research Record, 1674, pp. 78–85.
• [20] Kröyer, H. R. G. (2016). Pedestrian and bicyclist flows in accident modelling at intersections. Influence of the length of observational period. Safety Science, 82, pp. 315–324.
• [21] Lewin, A. (2011). Temporal and Weather Impacts on Bicycle Volumes. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C, 18 pp.
• [22] Li, T., Yang, Y., Wang, Y., Chen, C., & Yao, J. (2016). Traffic fatalities prediction based on support vector machine. Archives of Transport, 39(3), pp. 21–30.
• [23] Mathisen, T. A., Annema, J. A., & Kroesen, M. (2015). The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in Northern Norway. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 15(2), pp. 261–273.
• [24] Meng, M., Zhang, J., Wong, Y. D., & Au, P. H. (2016). Effect of weather conditions and weather forecast on cycling travel behavior in Singapore. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 10(9), pp. 773–780.
• [25] Miranda-Moreno, L. F., & Nosal, T. (2011). Weather or Not to Cycle: Temporal Trends and Impact of Weather on Cycling in an Urban Environment. Transportation Research Board: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2247, pp. 42–52.
• [26] Nankervis, M. (1999). The effect of weather and climate on bicycle commuting. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 33, pp. 417–431.
• [27] Noland, R. B., & Ishaque, M. M. (2006). Smart Bicycles in an Urban Area: Evaluation of a Pilot Scheme in London. Journal of Public Transportation, 9(5), pp. 71–95.
• [28] Parkin, J., Wardman, M., & Page, M. (2008). Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data. Transportation, 35, pp. 93–109.
• [29] Phung, J., & Rose, G. (2007). Temporal variations in usage of Melbourne’s bike paths. in 30th Australasian Transport Research Forum, pp. 1–15.
• [30] Pogodzinska, S., Kiec, M., & D’Agostino, C. (2020). Bicycle Traffic Volume Estimation Based on GPS Data. Transportation Research Procedia, 45(2019), pp. 874–881.
• [31] Prati, G., De Angelis, M., Puchades, V. M., Fraboni, F., & Pietrantoni, L. (2017). Characteristics of cyclist crashes in Italy using latent class analysis and association rule mining. PLoS ONE, 12(2), pp. 1–29.
• [32] Richardson, A. J. (2000). Seasonal and Weather Impacts on Urban Cycling Trips, TUTI Report 1-2000, The Urban Transport Institute, Victoria.
• [33] Sabir, M. (2011). Weather and Travel Behaviour. Amsterdam: VU University.
• [34] Saneinejad, S., Roorda, M. J., & Kennedy, C. (2012). Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 17, pp. 129–137.
• [35] Schepers, J. P., Kroeze, P. A., Sweers, W., & Wüst, J. C. (2011). Road factors and bicycle-motor vehicle crashes at unsignalized priority intersections. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 43(3), pp. 853–861.
• [36] Strauss, J., & Miranda-Moreno, L. F. (2017). Speed, travel time and delay for intersections and road segments in the Montreal network using cyclist Smartphone GPS data. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 57, pp. 155–171.
• [37] Thomas, T., Jaarsma, R., & Tutert, B. (2009). Temporal variations of bicycle demand in the Netherlands: The influence of weather on cycling. 88th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., pp. 1–17.
• [38] Thomas, T., Jaarsma, R., & Tutert, B. (2013). Exploring temporal fluctuations of daily cycling demand on Dutch cycle paths: The influence of weather on cycling. Transportation, 40, pp. 1–22.
• [39] Tin, S. T., Woodward, A., Robinson, E., & Ameratunga, S. (2012). Temporal, seasonal and weather effects on cycle volume: an ecological study. Environmental Health, 11, pp. 1–9.
• [40] Wessel, J. (2020). Using weather forecasts to forecast whether bikes are used. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 138, pp. 537–559.
• [41] Winters, M., Friesen, M. C., Koehoorn, M., & Teschke, K. (2006). Utilitarian Bicycling. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 32(1), pp. 52–58.
• [42] Winters, M., Davidson, G., Kao, D., & Teschke, K. (2011). Motivators and deterrents of bicycling: Comparing influences on decisions to ride. Transportation, 38(1), pp. 153–168.
• [43] Ӧberg, G. (1998). Single Accidents among Pedestrians and Cyclists in Sweden. Technical Report Vol. 3. 10th PIARC International Winter Road Congress, Luleå, Sweden.