Decision theory under general uncertainty

• Autorzy: Cui Y. , Guo R. , Dunne T. , Guo D.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The exposure of Toyota management’s cover-up of its faulty car component problems raises a fundamental question: did Toyota management make an appropriate decision taking all uncertainties into account? Statistical decision theory is a framework with a probabilistic foundation, which admits random uncertainty about the real world and human thinking. In general, the uncertainty of the real world is diversified and therefore the effort of trying to deal with different forms of uncertainty with one special form of uncertainty, namely random uncertainty, may be oversimplified. In this paper, we introduce an axiomatic uncertain measure theoretical framework and explore the essential mechanism in formulating a general uncertainty decision theory. We expect that a new understanding of uncertainty and development of a corresponding new uncertainty decision-making approach may assist intelligence communities to survive and deal with the extremely tough and diverse aspects of an uncertain reality.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

statistical decision; state space; action space; uncertain measure; loss function; risk; uncertainty decision

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2010
• Tom: Vol. 1, No. 1
• Strony: 51--66
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 8 poz., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Cui Y.

• University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

autor

Guo R.

• University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

autor

Dunne T.

• University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

autor

Guo D.

• South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape Town, South Africa

Bibliografia

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• [2] DeGroot, M. H. (1970). Optimal Statistical Decisions. McGraw-Hill, Inc, New York, USA.
• [3] Ferguson, T. S. (1967). Mathematical Statistics. A Decision Theoretic Approach. Academic Press Inc, New York, USA.
• [4] Kolmogorov, A. N. (1950). Foundations of the Theory of Probability. Translated by Nathan Morrison, Publisher: Chelsea, New York.
• [5] Liu, B. D. (2007). Uncertainty Theory: An Introduction to Its Axiomatic Foundations. 2nd Edition; Berlin: Springer-Verlag Heidelberg.
• [6] Liu, B. D. (2010). Uncertainty Theory. 3nd Edition (Drafted version).
• [7] Peng Z. X. & Iwamura, K. (2009). A sufficient and necessary condition of uncertainty distribution.http://orsc.edu.cn/online/090305.pdf.
• [8] Primas, H. (1999). Basic Elements and Problems of Probability Theory. Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 579-613.