Determining the appropriate time period for analyzing the development of socio-economic phenomena

• Autorzy: Ginevičius Romualdas

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17512/pjms.2025.31.1.07

Warianty tytułu

PL

Określenie odpowiedniego okresu czasowego na analizę rozwoju zjawisk społeczno-gospodarczych

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of this article is to propose a methodology to determine an appropriate period for the quantitative evaluation of the development of SER as a process and to validate it using a real-world example. There has been an increasing the analysis and assessment of the state of socio-economic systems (SES) for the purpose of managing their targeted development are gaining importance. The adequacy of such analysis and assessment is largely dependent on the duration of the period under consideration. Recently, the analysis and assessment of the state of socioeconomic systems (SES) for the purpose of managing their targeted development have gained importance. The accuracy of such analysis and assessment depends a lot on the duration of the period under consideration. In the absence of a clearly defined period, time spans of varying durations are used, ranging from a few years to several decades. The determination of an appropriate period is based on the impact of past development periods (years) on recent years. Studies have shown that this influence is strong (r = 0.85-0.95) and can be described using both linear and nonlinear regression models. The appropriate analysis period can be identified on the basis of the selected correlation coefficient between the most recent (base) year and the development observed in the preceding years. The optimal analysis period, expressed in years, corresponds to the point at which this relationship remains statistically significant.

PL

Celem niniejszego artykułu jest zaproponowanie metodologii określania odpowiedniego okresu dla ilościowej oceny rozwoju SER jako procesu oraz jej walidacja na podstawie przykładu z życia wziętego. Coraz większego znaczenia nabiera analiza i ocena stanu systemów społeczno-gospodarczych (SES) w celu zarządzania ich ukierunkowanym rozwojem. Adekwatność takiej analizy i oceny zależy w dużej mierze od długości okresu, który jest przedmiotem rozważań. W ostatnim czasie coraz większego znaczenia nabiera analiza i ocena stanu systemów społeczno-gospodarczych (SES) w celu zarządzania ich ukierunkowanym rozwojem. Dokładność takich analiz i ocen zależy w dużej mierze od długości okresu, który jest przedmiotem analizy. W przypadku braku jasno określonego okresu stosuje się różne przedziały czasowe, od kilku lat do kilkudziesięciu lat. Określenie odpowiedniego okresu opiera się na wpływie poprzednich okresów rozwoju (lat) na ostatnie lata. Badania wykazały, że wpływ ten jest silny (r = 0,85-0,95) i można go opisać za pomocą modeli regresji liniowej i nieliniowej. Odpowiedni okres analizy można określić na podstawie wybranego współczynnika korelacji między ostatnim rokiem (bazowym) a rozwojem obserwowanym w poprzednich latach. Optymalny okres analizy, wyrażony w latach, odpowiada punktowi, w którym zależność ta pozostaje statystycznie istotna.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

socio-economic systems; development; analysis period

PL

system społeczno-gospodarczy; rozwój; okres analizy

• Wydawca: Czestochowa University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Management Studies
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: Vol. 31, No. 1
• Strony: 124--138
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 35 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Ginevičius Romualdas

• Faculty of Public Management and Business, Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania

• https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0753-6608

Bibliografia

• 1.Acheampong, A., (2018). Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption: What causes what and where? Energy Economics, 74, 677-692.
• 2.Ahmad, N.; Du, L.; Lu, J.; Wang, J.; Li, H.-Z. and Hashmi, M. Z., (2017). Modeling the CO2 emissions and economic growth in Croatia: Is there any environmental Kuznets curve? Energy, 123, 164-172.
• 3.Ajayi, O., (2019). Comparing multivariate models' forecasts of inflation for BRICS and OPEC countries. Business, Management and Economics Engineering, 17(2), 152-172.
• 4.Ajayi, S. O., Oyedele, L. O. and Ilori, O. M., (2019). Changing significance of embodied energy: A comparative study of material specifications and building energy sources. Journal of Building Engineering, 23, 324-333.
• 5.Bakirtas, I., Sari, R. and Koc, S., (2024). Coup D'état and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure. Panoeconomicus, 71(1), 71-94.
• 6.Bruzgė, Š., (2014). Evaluation of state subsidising effect on business [Valstybinio subsidijavimo ruusuo verslui vertinimas: dissertation] In Lithuanian . Vilnius: Technika.
• 7.Bužinskė, J., (2024). Green finance model for the sustainable development of zero-waste cities [doctoral dissertation]. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
• 8.Cherniak, O., Trishch, R., Ginevičius, R., Nechuiviter, O. and Burdeina, V., (2023, December). Methodology for assessing the processes of the occupational safety management system using functional dependencies. In Conference on Integrated Computer Technologies in Mechanical Engineering-Synergetic Engineering (pp. 3-13). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.
• 9.Dočekalová, M., Bočková, N., (2013). The use of data envelopment analysis to assess the R&D effectiveness of the Czech manufacturing industry. Business: Theory and Practice, 14(4), 308-314.
• 10.Fomina, O., Zadniprovsky, O., Korol, S. and Romashko, O., (2022). Professional judgment in accounting: contents and conditions of application. Business: Theory and Practice, 23(1), 26-38.
• 11.Ginevičius, R., (2024). Evaluating the sustained development of socio-economic systems. Economics and Sociology, 17(4), 315-332.
• 12.Grybaite, V., (2023). Evaluation of factors having an impact on the development of the sharing economy: doctoral dissertation. Vilnius: Technika.
• 13.Gulewicz, M., (2022). Digital twin technology — awareness, implementation problems and benefits. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 14(1), 63-77.
• 14.Hwang, C. L., Yoon, K., (1981). Multiple Attribute Decision Making. Methods and Application a State-of-the-Art Survey. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 186. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
• 15.Iershova, N. Y., Portna, O. V., Uhrimova, I. V. and Chaika, T. Y., (2022). The Impact of Employee Attitudes on the Effectiveness of Corporate Governance and Social External Effects: Business Analytics Platform. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 18(2), 73-84.
• 16.Ilyash, O., Lupak, R., Kravchenko, M., Trofymenko, O., Duliaba, N. and Dzhadan, I., (2022). A forecasting model for assessing the influence of the components of technological growth on economic security. Business: Theory and Practice, 23(1), 175-186.
• 17.Ključnikov, A., Civelek, M., Krajčík, V. and Ondrejmišková, I. (2020). Innovative Regional Development of the Structurally Disadvantaged Industrial Region by the Means of the Local Currency. Acta Montanistica Slovaca, 25(2), 224-235.
• 18.Kuprijanov, O., Trishch, Ú., Dichev, D. and Bondarenko, T., (2022). Mathematical Model of the General Approach to Tolerance Control in Quality Assessment. Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering, 415-423.
• 19.Lean, H. H., Russell, S., (2010). CO2 emissions, electricity consumption and output in ASEAN. Applied Energy, Elsevier, 87(6), 1858-1864.
• 20.Lesniak, A., Surma, T., Szczepanska-Woszczyna, K., and Zamasz, K. (2023). The Recent Development of High-Efficiency Cogeneration Units in Poland. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 11(4), 123-143.
• 21.Li, Z. Z., With, C. W. and Tao, R., (2024). No Longer a Safe Haven Currency? A Fresh Evidence of Japanese Yen under Uncertainty. Panoeconomicus, 71(1), 119-134.
• 22.Lisiński, M., Augustinaitis, A., Nazarko, L. and Ratajczak, S., (2020). Evaluation of dynamics of economic development in Polish and Lithuanian regions. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(4), 1093-1110.
• 23.Melnyk, L., Sommer, H., Kubatko, O., Rabe, M. and Fedyna, S., (2020). The economic and social drivers of renewable energy development in OECD countries. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 18(4), 37-48.
• 24.Muhammad Salim, M. A., Mior Shariffuddin, N. S., Eppang, B. M., Widjaja, H. R., Azinuddin, M., Mat Som, A. P., Madkhali, H. and Alotaibi, S., (2024). Navigating Uncertainty Through Resilience, Absorptive Capacity and Adaptive Performance in Shaping SME Exit Intentions in the Tourism Industry. Journal of Tourism and Services, 15(29), 267-293.
• 25.Muleya, F., Muwila, N. and Tembo, C. K., (2021). Partial replacement of cement with rice husk ash in concrete production: an exploratory cost-benefit analysis for low-income communities. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 13(2), 127-141.
• 26.Poliakova, A., Hamarneh, I., Jibril, A. B. and Kicová, E., (2024). The Interconnections Between CSR, Financial Management, and Sustainability in Service Sector SMEs. Journal of Tourism and Services, 15(29), 227-247.
• 27.Portna, O. V., Iershova, N. Y., Grytsenko, A. A., Tereshchenko, D. A., Chaika, T. Y. and Delibasic, M. V., (2021). New Configurations of Social and Labour Relations in a Crisis Economy. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 17(2), 157-172.
• 28.Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J. and Mohd, S., (2012). Economic growth and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: a cointegration analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve. Energy policy, 51, 184-191.
• 29.Saidi, K., Hammami, S., (2015). The impact of CO2 emissions and economic growth on energy consumption in 58 countries. Energy Reports, 1, 62-70.
• 30.Sviderskė, T., (2014). Country risk assessment in economic security and sustainability context. Doctoral dissertation. Vilnius: Technika.
• 31.Suieubayeva, S., Aimurzina, B., Kamenova, M., Karipova, A., Kozlova, M. and Sadenova, A., (2025). Activating the Social Responsibility of Business Structures in the Context of Transition 4.0 as a Condition for Effective Economic Management. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 21(1), 157-168.
• 32.Trish, R. M., Sichinava, A., Bartoš, V., Stasiukynas, A. and Schieg, M., (2023). Comparative Assessment of Economic Development in the Countries of the European Union. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 24(1), 20-36.
• 33.Volkov, A., (2018). Assessment of the impact of the common agricultural policy direct payments system on agricultural sustainability. Doctoral dissertation. Vilnius: Technika.
• 34.Vysochan, O., Vysochan, O., Hyk, V. and Boychuk, A., (2022). Multi-criteria evaluation of innovative projects by means of ELECTRE application. Business: Theory and Practice, 23(2), 445-455.
• 35.Wang, Y., Zhang, D., She, Q. and Shi, X., (2020). Regional renewable energy development in China: A multidimensional assessment. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 124, 109797.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).