Modeling hazard-related interactions between the processes realized in and around the Baltic Sea Region ports

• Autorzy: Malinowski J.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper presents a probabilistic model of hazard-related interdependence between the operations carried out in the ports of the Baltic Sea region and in their neighborhoods. Each single operation, considered w.r.t. its hazardous aspect, will be defined as a point process consisting of undesired events (emergencies and/or accidents). Thus, the interdependence between these processes can be regarded as interaction between such events. The developed model will specify the impact of hazard related events occurring within one process on the risk of occurrence of such events in the other processes. This model will be a basis for the analysis of inter-process dependencies, including the feedback and cascading effects, as implied by the cause-effect relationships between the events occurring in different processes. Furthermore, it is envisaged to be used for assessing the potential effects of accidents or catastrophic events, and for developing the appropriate prevention measures. The procedures derived from the model will be applied to analyzing the mutual impacts between the processes realized in the oil and container terminals, forecasting negative effects of these impacts along with assessing their costs, and planning preventive actions aimed at avoiding such effects.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

probabilistic modeling; hazard-related events; processes interaction; cascading effect; risk calculation

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 1
• Strony: 87--96
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 5 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Malinowski J.

• Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] Swift, A. W. (2008). Stochastic models of cascading failures. Journal of Applied Probability 45, 907-921.
• [2] Iyer, S. M., Marvin K. Nakayama & Gerbessiotis A. V. (2009). A Markovian Dependability Model with Cascading Failures. IEEE Transactions On Computers 58, 1238-1249.
• [3] Dong, H. & Cui, L. (2016). System Reliability Under Cascading Failure Models. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 65, 929-940.
• [4] Bielecki, T.R., Vidozzi, A., Vidozzi, L. & Jakubowski, J. (2008). Study of dependence for some stochastic processes. Stochastic Analysis and Applications 26, 1-16.
• [5] Pescaroli, G. & Alexander, D. (2015). A definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects: Going beyond the “toppling dominos” metaphor. In: Planet@Risk 2(3), 58-67, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).