The relationships between sovereign country risk ratings, governance, economic performance and domestic investment: managerial and policy lessons from Poland and South Africa

• Autorzy: Meyer Daniel Francois

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17512/pjms.2023.28.2.12

Warianty tytułu

PL

Związki między ratingami ryzyka państw, ładem korporacyjnym, wynikami gospodarczymi i inwestycjami krajowymi: lekcje zarządzania i polityki z Polski i Afryki Południowej

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The relevance of sovereign country risk ratings has become essential for investment and governance management and policy. Risk rating agencies are critical players in financial and risk markets. This paper analysed the relationships between risk ratings, governance, economic performance and investment, based on a comparative analysis between Poland and South Africa. These two countries have taken different developmental paths as developed and developing countries, respectively. The study adopted a quantitative research approach using data from 1994 to 2021. The analysis entailed a descriptive and econometric analysis for both countries. The findings reveal significant differences between the two countries. Poland performed more efficiently than South Africa, which performed at approximately only 43% of that of Poland in 2021 and only 73% over the study period. Longrun relationships were estimated, with the formulated risk rating index as the dependent variable. The coefficients in the South African long-run model were much higher than in the case of Poland. In the case of Poland, the level of government debt had the highest impact on the dependent variable, while in the South African case, the level of GDP growth had the highest impact. The novelty of the paper is embedded in the unique combination of governance, risk management and economic variables. The results suggest that management with good governance, economic performance and the level of investment significantly impact countries' sovereign risk rating indexes. Policymakers need to ensure high levels of management, good governance, and government debt management. In addition, policy certainty must be ensured to attract investment by facilitating stable risk ratings.

PL

Znaczenie ratingów ryzyka państw stało się kluczowe dla zarządzania inwestycjami i ładu korporacyjnego oraz polityki. Agencje ratingowe odgrywają kluczową rolę na rynkach finansowych i rynkach ryzyka. W artykule przeanalizowano związki między ratingami ryzyka, zarządzaniem, wynikami gospodarczymi i inwestycjami w oparciu o analizę porównawczą między Polską a Republiką Południowej Afryki. Te dwa kraje obrały różne ścieżki rozwoju, odpowiednio jako kraje rozwinięte i rozwijające się. W badaniu przyjęto ilościowe podejście badawcze, wykorzystując dane z lat 1994-2021. Analiza obejmowała analizę opisową i ekonometryczną dla obu krajów. Wyniki ujawniają znaczące różnice między tymi dwoma krajami. Polska osiągnęła lepsze wyniki niż Republika Południowej Afryki, która w 2021 r. osiągnęła w przybliżeniu tylko 43% wyników Polski i tylko 73% w całym badanym okresie. Oszacowano zależności długoterminowe, przy czym zmienną zależną był sformułowany wskaźnik oceny ryzyka. Współczynniki w południowoafrykańskim modelu długookresowym były znacznie wyższe niż w przypadku Polski. W przypadku Polski największy wpływ na zmienną zależną miał poziom długu publicznego, natomiast w przypadku RPA największy wpływ miał poziom wzrostu PKB. Nowatorstwo artykułu polega na unikalnym połączeniu zmiennych dotyczących zarządzania, zarządzania ryzykiem i gospodarki. Wyniki sugerują, że zarządzanie z dobrym zarządzaniem, wyniki gospodarcze i poziom inwestycji znacząco wpływają na indeksy ratingu ryzyka państwowego krajów. Decydenci polityczni muszą zapewnić wysoki poziom zarządzania, dobre rządy i odpowiednie zarządzanie długiem publicznym. Ponadto należy zapewnić ciągłość polityki w celu przyciągnięcia inwestycji poprzez utrzymanie stabilnych ratingów ryzyka.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

economic performance; good governance; investment; Poland; sovereign risk rating; South Africa

PL

wyniki gospodarcze; dobre zarządzanie; inwestycje; Polska; rating ryzyka państwa; RPA

• Wydawca: Czestochowa University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Management Studies
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: Vol. 28, No. 2
• Strony: 203--222
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 45 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Meyer Daniel Francois

• University of Johannesburg, South Africa

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6715-7545

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).