A data-driven approach to predict hydrometeorological variability and fluctuations in lake water levels

• Autorzy: Tan Kesgin Remziye I. , Demir Ibrahim , Kesgin Erdal , Abdelkader Mohamed , Agaccioglu Hayrullah

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/jwld.2023.146608

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Beyşehir Lake is the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean region of Turkey that is used for drinking and irrigation purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine the potential for data-driven methods to predict long-term lake levels. The surface water level variability was forecast using conventional machine learning models, including autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). Based on the monthly water levels of Beyşehir Lake from 1992 to 2016, future water levels were predicted up to 24 months in advance. Water level predictions were obtained using conventional time series stochastic models, including autoregressive moving average, autoregressive integrated moving average, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Using historical records from the same period, prediction models for precipitation and evaporation were also developed. In order to assess the model’s accuracy, statistical performance metrics were applied. The results indicated that the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model outperformed all other models for lake level, precipitation, and evaporation prediction. The obtained results suggested the importance of incorporating the seasonality component for climate predictions in the region. The findings of this study demonstrated that simple stochastic models are effective in predicting the temporal evolution of hydrometeorological variables and fluctuations in lake water levels.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

evaporation; lake water level; precipitation; stochastic time series models; water transfer

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: no. 58
• Strony: 158--170
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 39 poz., fot., mapy, rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Tan Kesgin Remziye I.

• Fatih Sultan Mehmet Vakıf University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Beyoglu, 34445, Istanbul, Turkey

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9135-1698

autor

Demir Ibrahim

• Yıldız Technical University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Esenler, 34210, Istanbul, Turkey

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2734-4116

autor

Kesgin Erdal

• Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9441-5359

autor

Abdelkader Mohamed

• Stevens Institute of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Ocean Engineering, 1 Castle Point Terrace, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7655-5737

autor

Agaccioglu Hayrullah

• Yıldız Technical University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Esenler, 34210, Istanbul, Turkey

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-9848

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).