Automatic calibration and sensitivity analysis of DISPRIN model parameters: A case study on Lesti watershed in East Java, Indonesia

• Autorzy: Sulianto , Bisri M. , Limantara L. M. , Sisinggih D.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/jwld-2018-0033

Warianty tytułu

PL

Kalibracja automatyczna i analiza czułości parametrów modelu DISPRIN: Przypadek zlewni Lesti w prowincji Jawa Wschodnia, Indonezja

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The Dee Investigation Simulation Program for Regulating Network (DISPRIN) model consists of eight tanks that are mutually interconnected. It contains 25 parameters involved in the process of transforming rainfall into runoff data. This complexity factor is the appeal to be explored in order to more efficiently. Parameterization process in this research is done by using Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm while parameters sensitivity analysis is done by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Software application models of merging the two concepts are called DISPRIN25-DE model and compiled using code program M-FILE from MATLAB. Results of research on Lesti watershed at the control point Tawangrejeni automatic water level recorder (AWLR) station (319.14 km²) in East Java Indonesia indicate that the model can work effectively for transforming rainfall into runoff data series. Model performance at the calibration stage provide value of NSE = 0.871 and PME = 0.343 while in the validation stage provide value of NSE = 0.823 and PME = 0.180. Good performance in the calibration process indicates that DE algorithm is able to solve problems of global optimization of the equations system with a large number of variables. The results of the sensitivity analysis of 25 parameters showed that 3 parameters have a strong sensitivity level, 7 parameters with a medium level and 15 other parameters showed weak sensitivity level to performance of DISPRIN model.

PL

Model DISPRIN składa się z ośmiu zbiorników wzajemnie ze sobą połączonych. Zawiera 25 parametrów zaangażowanych w proces transformacji danych opadowych w dane odpływu. Ten czynnik złożoności skłania do podjęcia badań celem zwiększenia wydajności. W badaniach prezentowanych w niniejszej pracy proces parametryzacji zrealizowano, stosując algorytm zróżnicowanej ewolucji (DE), podczas gdy analizę czułości przeprowadzono z użyciem metody symulacji Monte Carlo. Modele aplikacji polegające na łączeniu dwóch koncepcji nazywane są DISPRIN25-DE i są kompilowane za pomocą programu M-FILE z MATLAB. Wyniki badań zlewni Lesti (319,14 km²) w punkcie kontrolnym stacji Tawangrejeni z automatycznym pomiarem poziomu wody w prowincji Jawa Wschodnia w Indonezji wskazują, że model może efektywnie działać w celu przekształcenia opadów w serie danych o odpływie. Na etapie kalibracji model dostarczył wartości NSE = 0,871 i PME = 0,343, a na etapie walidacji wartości NSE = 0.823 i PME = 0,180. Dobre rezultaty w procesie kalibracji wskazują, że algorytm DE jest zdolny rozwiązywać problemy globalnej optymalizacji systemu równań z dużą liczbą zmiennych. Wyniki analizy czułości 25 parametrów wykazały, że 3 parametry mają wysoką czułość, 7 – pośrednią, a 15 innych parametrów cechuje niski poziom czułości na zachowanie modelu DISPRIN.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

differential evolution; Dee Investigation Simulation Program for Regulating Network (DISPRIN); model; Lesti watershed; simulation

PL

ewolucja różnicowa; model DISPRIN; symulacja; zlewnia Lesti

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: no. 37
• Strony: 141--152
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 23 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Sulianto

• University of Muhammadiyah Malang, Department of Civil Engineering, Jl. Raya Tlogomas No 246, 65114 Malang, East Java Province, Indonesia

autor

Bisri M.

• University of Brawijaya, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Water Resources, Malang, East Java Province, Indonesia

autor

Limantara L. M.

• University of Brawijaya, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Water Resources, Malang, East Java Province, Indonesia

autor

Sisinggih D.

• University of Brawijaya, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Water Resources, Malang, East Java Province, Indonesia

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