Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends in Chhattisgarh State, Central India over the last 115 years

• Autorzy: Nema M. K. , Khare D. , Adamowski J. , Chandniha S. K.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/jwld-2018-0012

Warianty tytułu

PL

Przestrzenna i czasowa analiza tendencji zmian opadów w stanie Chhattisgarh w środkowych Indiach w ciągu ostatnich 115 lat

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A quantitative and qualitative understanding of the anticipated climate-change-driven multi-scale spatio- -temporal shifts in precipitation and attendant river flows is crucial to the development of water resources management approaches capable of sustaining and even improving the ecological and socioeconomic viability of rainfed agricultural regions. A set of homogeneity tests for change point detection, non-parametric trend tests, and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to long-term gridded rainfall records of 27 newly formed districts in Chhattisgarh State, India. Illustrating the impacts of climate change, an analysis of spatial variability, multitemporal (monthly, seasonal, annual) trends and inter-annual variations in rainfall over the last 115 years (1901– 2015 mean 1360 mm·y^–1) showed an overall decline in rainfall, with 1961 being a change point year (i.e., shift from rising to declining trend) for most districts in Chhattisgarh. Spatio-temporal variations in rainfall within the state of Chhattisgarh showed a coefficient of variation of 19.77%. Strong inter-annual and seasonal variability in regional rainfall were noted. These rainfall trend analyses may help predict future climate scenarios and thereby allow planning of effective and sustainable water resources management for the region.

PL

Ilościowe i jakościowe rozpoznanie przewidywanych wielowymiarowych zmian opadów i towarzyszących im przepływów w rzekach spowodowanych zmianami klimatu jest decydujące dla rozwoju metod zarządzania zasobami wodnymi zdolnych utrzymać lub nawet usprawnić rentowność obszarów rolniczych zasilanych opadami. Zastosowano kilka testów jednorodności do wykrycia punktu zwrotnego, nieparametryczne testy trendu i estymator nachylenia Sena do analizy wieloletnich danych o opadach w 27 nowo utworzonych dystryktach stanu Chhattisgarh w Indiach. Ilustrując wpływ zmian klimatu, wyniki analizy przestrzennej zmienności, miesięcznych, sezonowych i rocznych trendów oraz zmienności między latami (1901–2015, średni opad 1360 mm·r^–1) wykazały ogólne zmniejszenie ilości opadów w większości dystryktów stanu Chhattisgarh. Rok 1961 był punktem zwrotnym między rosnącym a malejącym trendem opadów. Współczynnik zmienności przestrzennej i czasowej opadów w stanie Chhattisgarh wynosił 19,77%. Zanotowano znaczną zmienność opadów między poszczególnymi latami i porami roku. Takie analizy trendów mogą być przydatne w przewidywaniu przyszłych scenariuszy klimatycznych, a w związku z tym – umożliwić wydajne i zrównoważone zarządzanie zasobami wodnymi regionu.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

change point; gridded data; modified Mann–Kendall test; rainfall variability; trend analysis

PL

analiza trendu; dane gridowe; punkt zwrotny; zmienność opadów; zmodyfikowany test Manna– Kendalla

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: no. 36
• Strony: 117--128
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 56 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Nema M. K.

• National Institute of Hydrology, Water Resources Systems Division, Roorkee, India

autor

Khare D.

• Indian Institute of Technology, Department of WRDM, Roorkee, India

autor

Adamowski J.

• McGill University, Department of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, 21 111 Lakeshore Road, Ste Anne de Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, Canada

autor

Chandniha S. K.

• National Institute of Hydrology, Water Resources Systems Division, Roorkee, India

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).