A simple tool for evaluating the risks related to hazardous interactions between the processes realized in the Baltic Sea Region port areas

• Autorzy: Malinowski J.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper is a continuation of [1] which presents a probabilistic model of hazard-related interactions between different operations carried out in a (generic) Baltic Sea Region port area. Each such operation, considering its hazardous aspect, is defined as a series of undesired events (emergencies and/or accidents) occurring at random instants, i.e. as a random process. An event can be primary (occurring by itself) or secondary (caused by another event in the same or another process). The processes interact in the sense that a primary event in one process can cause a cascade of events spanning multiple processes. In [1] the formulas were derived for the cause-effect probabilities expressing the impact of a single event on the occurrence of the ensuing events in the triggered cascade. Also, the formulas for risks of undesired events, using these probabilities, were obtained. As these formulas are complicated and difficult to implement numerically, the need arose to develop a simple tool for computing the considered risks. Such a tool, in the form of an easy-toimplement algorithm, along with an illustrative example is presented in the current work.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

probabilistic modeling; hazardous; harmful or catastrophic events; processes interaction; cascading effect; risk calculation

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: Vol. 9, No. 3
• Strony: 39--46
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 6 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Malinowski J.

• Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] Malinowski, J. (2017). Modeling hazard-related Interactions between the processes realized in and around the Baltic Sea Region ports. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2017, 87-96.
• [2] Swift, A. W. (2008). Stochastic models of cascading failures. Journal of Applied Probability 45, 907-921.
• [3] Iyer, S. M., Nakayama, M.K. & Gerbessiotis A. V. (2009). A Markovian Dependability Model with Cascading Failures. IEEE Transactions On Computers 58, 1238-1249.
• [4] Dong, H. & Cui, L. (2016). System Reliability Under Cascading Failure Models. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 65, 929-940.
• [5] Bielecki, T.R., Vidozzi, A., Vidozzi, L. & Jakubowski, J. (2008). Study of dependence for some stochastic processes. Stochastic Analysis and Applications 26, 1-16.
• [6] Pescaroli, G. & Alexander, D. (2015). A definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects: Going beyond the “toppling dominos” metaphor. In: Planet@Risk 2(3), 58-67, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).