Forecast value added (FVA) analysis as a means to improve the efficiency of a forecasting process

• Autorzy: Chybalski F.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5277/ord170101

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A praxeological approach has been proposed in order to improve a forecasting process through the employment of the forecast value added (FVA) analysis. This may be interpreted as a manifestation of lean management in forecasting. The author discusses the concepts of the effectiveness and efficiency of forecasting. The former, defined in the praxeology as the degree to which goals are achieved, refers to the accuracy of forecasts. The latter reflects the relation between the benefits accruing from the re-sults of forecasting and the costs incurred in this process. Since measuring the benefits accruing from a forecasting is very difficult, a simplification according to which this benefit is a function of the fore-cast accuracy is proposed. This enables evaluating the efficiency of the forecasting process. Since im-proving this process may consist of either reducing forecast error or decreasing costs, FVA analysis, which expresses the concept of lean management, may be applied to reduce the waste accompanying forecasting.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

forecasting; praxeology; efficiency; forecasting added value; FVA

PL

prognozowanie; prakseologia; wydajność; prognozowanie wartości dodanej; FVA

• Wydawca: Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Czasopismo: Operations Research and Decisions
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 27, No. 1
• Strony: 5--19
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 14 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Chybalski F.

• Lodz University of Technology, Department of Management, ul. Piotrkowska 266, 90-361 Łódź, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] ARMSTRONG J.S., Long-Range Forecasting. From Crystal Ball to Computer, Wiley, New York 1985.
• [2] CHYBALSKI F., Praxeological aspects of forecasting, Prace Naukowe UE we Wrocławiu, No. 185, Fore-casting in an enterprise’s management, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, Wrocław 2011 (in Polish).
• [3] Economic Forecasting. Methods and Applications, M. Cieślak (Ed.), Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warsaw 2001 (in Polish).
• [4] DITTMANN P., Forecasting in an Enterprise’s Management, Statsoft Polska, Cracow 2000 (in Polish).
• [5] DITTMANN P., Forecasting in an Enterprise. Methods and Their Applications, Oficyna Ekonomiczna, Cracow 2003 (in Polish).
• [6] EVANS M.K., Practical Business Forecasting, Blackwell Publishers, Oxford 2003.
• [7] GILLILAND M., The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions, Wiley, New Jersey 2010.
• [8] KAHN K.B., MELLO J., Lean Forecasting Begins with Lean Thinking on the Demand Forecasting Pro-cess, The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods and Systems, 2004, 24 (4), 30–32, 40.
• [9] KOTARBIŃSKI T., Treaty on good work, Ossolineum, Wrocław 1982 (in Polish).
• [10] MAGENNIS T., Lean Forecasting, https://leanpub.com/LeanForecasting (accessed: 22.06.2016).
• [11] MAKRIDAKIS S., WHEELWRIGHT S.C., HYNDMAN R.J., Forecasting. Methods and Applications, Wiley, New York 1998.
• [12] MISES L., Human action: A treatise on Economics, Fox and Wilkes, San Francisco 1996.
• [13] ROTHARB M.N., Economic controversies, Ludwig von Mises Institute, Auburn, Alabama 2011.
• [14] SINGH H., RAMAN S., WILSON E., Practical considerations in forecast value added (FVA) analysis, Fore-sight, 2015 (38).

Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).