Analysis of strategic stakeholders in the Western Balkans

Dimitrov, Michael

doi:10.35467/sdq/154884

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Analysis of strategic stakeholders in the Western Balkans

Autorzy

Dimitrov Michael

Treść / Zawartość

Pełne teksty:

Pobierz

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.35467/sdq/154884

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The purpose of this paper is to generate a model of the interplay between the main actors in the Western Balkans region in order to try to highlight major switch-factors and pathways for future evolution of the system. The study was carried out using MACTOR software developed by Laboratoire d’Investigation en Prospective, Stratégie et Organisation and École Pour l’Informatique et les Techniques Avancées. This computer-assisted method creates a hierarchy of objectives based on the mobilisation rates and gives some insight into what is at stake and the interested parties. The paper calculates the competitiveness index of each actor included in the model and the weighted valued position matrix showing both valence and mobilisation rate of actor-objective pairs. Valued convergence and divergence matrices (with graphic representation) outline the structure of the region. The results obtained can be used to develop possible scenarios. The structure of the Western Balkans region is subordinated to a single major divergence which is translated to the internal actors. Insulator states are losing relative weight with a narrowing field of manoeuvres. Bosnia and Herzegovina has become a focal point of polarity with a distinct vulnerability to the future line of behaviour of the Croatian element in the country.

Słowa kluczowe

weighted valued position matrix Open Balkan initiative convergence/divergence model

Wydawca

Akademia Sztuki Wojennej

Czasopismo

Security and Defence Quarterly

Rocznik

2022

Tom

Vol. 40, No. 4

Strony

27--46

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 48 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Dimitrov Michael

mdimitrov@nbu.bg

National and International Security, New Bulgarian University, Montevideo 21, 1632, Sofia, Bulgaria

Bibliografia

1. Bakalov J. (2020) ‘Zapadnite Balkani i ruskata politika’, in Doykov N. (ed.) Shirokata sigurnost. Vol. 2. Sofia: STUME, pp. 466–472.
2. Balkanist (2022) Sergey Lavrov: «Briussel hochet ustroit “zakritie Balkani”». Available at: https://balkanist.ru/sergej-lavrov-bryussel-hochet-ustroit-zakrytye-balkany/ (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
3. BGNES (2022) Vucic: Serbia ne podkrepi nito edna deklaracia na ES za sankcii sreshtu Rusia. Available at: https://bgnes.bg/news/vuchich-s-rbia-ne-podkrepi-nito-edna-deklaratcia-na-es-za-sanktcii-sreshchu-rusia/ (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
4. Bigo V. and Negru I. (2014) ‘Mathematical modelling in the wake of the crisis: A blessing or a curse? What does the economics profession say?’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 38(2), pp. 329–347. doi: 10.1093/cje/bet063.
5. Binici O. (2020) ‘Expanding European integration towards the Western Balkans in Times of Crises: A neo-functionalist examination’, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 14(4), pp. 75–98. doi: 10.51870/CEJISS.140401.
6. Blicharz M. (2022) ‘Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the international position of East Asian countries’, International Conference Knowledge-Based Organization, 28(2), pp. 116–122. doi: 10.2478/kbo-2022-0058.
7. Brody D. (2019) ‘Modelling election dynamics and the impact of disinformation’, Information Geometry, 2, pp. 209–230. doi: 10.1007/s41884-019-00021-2.
8. CRTA (2022a) Na ponovljenom glasanju na biračkom mestu 6 u Bujanovcu najviše glasova listi “Koalicija Albanaca Doline”, pokušaji kršenja procedura. Available at: https://crta.rs/na-ponovljenom-glasanju-na-birackom-mestu-6-u-bujanovcu-najvise-glasova-listi-koalicija-albanaca-doline-pokusaji-krsenja-procedura/ (Accessed: 7 July 2022).
9. CRTA (2022b) Haotičan izborni dan kao ishod lošeg izbornog procesa. Available at: https://crta.rs/haotican-izborni-dan-kao-ishod-loseg-izbornog-procesa/ (Accessed: 7 July 2022).
10. Danas (2022a) Jutarnji list: Vučić od Putina dobio šta je hteo, ali njegove muke ne prestaju, slede mu dva presudna sastanka. Available at: https://.danas.rs/vesti/politika/jutarnji-list-vucic-od-putina-dobio-sta-je-hteo-ali-njegove-muke-ne-prestaju-slede-mu-dva-presudna-sastanka/ (Accessed: 12 July 2022).
11. Danas (2022b) Joanikije: Crna Gora je projektovana da bude mala Ukrajina. Available at: https://.danas.rs/svet/region/joanikije-crna-gora-je-projektovana-da-bude-mala-ukrajina/ (Accessed: 12 July 2022).
12. ENTSOG (2022) FGSZ – Kiskundorozsma (HU>RS) (exit) physical flow. Available at: https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?from=2022-05-02&points=hu-tso-0001itp-00055exit%2Crs-tso-0001itp-00055entry (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
13. Gaidarov K. (2018) ‘Individualna psihologicheska ustoychivost, socialni bedstvia I hibridni zaplahi’, in Doykov N. (ed.) Asimetrichni zaplahi, hibridni voyni I vlianieto im varhu natsionalnata sigurnost. Sofia: STUME, pp. 43–51.
14. Georgiev V. (2020) ‘Demography, capabilities and security’, IT4Sec, 134, pp. 1–10. doi: 10.11610/it4sec.0134.
15. Godet M. and Durance P. (2011) Strategic foresight: For corporate and regional development. [no place] UNESCO.
16. Jagiello B. (2021) ‘The Balkan Kettle: Russia’s policy toward the Balkans’, Security and Defence Quarterly, 35(3), pp. 47–61. doi: 10.35467/sdq/138674.
17. Johnson P. (1989) ‘Formal theories of politics: The scope of mathematical modelling in political science’, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 12(4–5), pp. 397–404. doi: 10.1016/0895-7177(89)90412-3.
18. Jovovic P. (2022) Obrt: Pada broj Srba koji misle da je Rusija prijateljska zemlja. Available at: https://nova.rs/vesti/politika/institut-za-evropske-poslove-manji-broj-srba-misli-da-je-rusija-prijatelj/ (Accessed: 10 July 2022).
19. Klix (2022) Zbog ministara iz RS-a na čekanju projekt kojim bi BiH smanjila ovisnost o ruskom gasu. Available at: https://.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/zbog-ministara-iz-rs-a-na-cekanju-projekt-kojim-bi-bih-smanjila-ovisnost-o-ruskom-gasu/220705103 (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
20. Kolarov T. (2020) ‘Historic analogs of civil confiscation of unexplained wealth–The case of Bulgaria’, Journal of Financial Crime, 27(2), pp. 561–571. doi: 10.1108/JFC-08-2019-0108.
21. Kolarov T. (2022) ‘International commercial arbitrator addressing money laundering sua sponte’, Journal of Money Laundering Control, 25(3), pp. 637–644. doi: 10.1108/JMLC-05-2021-0052.
22. LIPSOR-EPITA-MACTOR (2004) Computer software: Version 5.1.2.
23. LNG Prime (2022) Excelerate plans to move FSRU from Israel to Albania. Available at: https://lngprime.com/lng-terminals/excelerate-plans-to-move-fsru-from-israel-to-albania/53051/ (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
24. Mehdi S. (2021) Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan sign gas swap deal. Available at: https://.aa.com.tr/en/world/iran-azerbaijan-turkmenistan-sign-gas-swap-deal/2433201 (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
25. Mirjacic M. (2022) Dobit Luke Bar za pola godine dva miliona eura. Available at: https://.vijesti.me/vijesti/ekonomija/608850/dobit-luke-bar-za-pola-godine-dva-miliona-eura (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
26. N1 (2022) Vučić: Nisam siguran da je Bugarskoj lako da zaustavi uvoz gasa Turskim tokom. Available at: https://rs.n1info.com/biznis/vucic-nisam-siguran-da-je-bugarskoj-lako-da-zaustavi-uvoz-gasa-turskim-tokom/ (Accessed: 8 July 2022).
27. Neftegaz.RU (2017) Brod refinery-Croatia gas link to disrupt works on vital gas pipeline in Bosnia-BH Gas. Available at: https://neftegazru.com/news/society/408216-brod-refinery-croatia-gas-link-to-disrupt-works-on-vital-gas-pipeline-in-bosnia-bh-gas/ (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
28. Neftegaz.RU (2021) Bosnia and Herzegovina changes import route for Russian gas. Available at: https://neftegazru.com/news/Transportation-and-storage/675161-bosnia-and-herzegovina-changes-import-route-for-russian-gas-/ (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
29. NIN online (2022) Issue 3718/31.03.2022. Available at: https://.nin.co.rs/pages/issue.php?id=102361747 (Accessed: 11 July 2022).
30. Novosti (2022) VUČIĆ SE OBRATIO JAVNOSTI: Predsednik o ubedljivoj pobedi – “Beskrajno sam ponosan i srećan” (FOTO). Available at: https://.novosti.rs/vesti/izbori-2022/1103422/najnovije-vesti-sns-aleksandar-vucic-izbori-2022 (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
31. O’Byrne D. (2022) Southeast Europe looks to Azerbaijan to replace Russian gas. Available at: https://eurasianet.org/southeast-europe-looks-to-azerbaijan-to-replace-russian-gas (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
32. Orekhov V., Prichina O. and Solodukha P. (2020) ‘Mathematical modeling of socioeconomic processes during the development of countries based on the indicative evaluation system’, Revista Inclusiones, 7, pp. 481–502.
33. Ozturk M. (2022a) Bosnian Serb leader threatens to block projects if Gazprom’s pipeline obstructed. Available at: https://.aa.com.tr/en/europe/bosnian-serb-leader-threatens-to-block-projects-if-gazproms-pipeline-obstructed/2616683# (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
34. Ozturk T. (2022b) Serbia secures new 3-year deal with Russia for gas supply. Available at: https://.aa.com.tr/en/europe/serbia-secures-new-3-year-deal-with-russia-for-gas-supply/2600651 (Accessed: 14 July 2022).
35. Politico (2022) German, Serbian leaders clash over Kosovo, Russia sanctions. Available at: https://.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-aleksandar-vucic-germany-serbia-kosovo-russia/ (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
36. Politika (2022) Bajatović: Izjave iz Bugarske o gasu su pusti snovi. Available at: https://.politika.rs/sr/clanak/502514/Bajatovic-Izjave-iz-Bugarske-o-gasu-su-pusti-snovi (Accessed: 14 July 2022).
37. RTS (2022) Patrijarh Porfirije uručio tomos arhiepiskopu makedonsko-ohridskom Stefanu. Available at: https://.rts.rs/page/stories/sr/story/125/drustvo/4840209/spc-mpc-tomos-autokefalnost.html (Accessed: 12 July 2022).
38. Sabadus A. (2022) North Macedonia faces energy crisis if no interconnection agreement signed with Bulgaria. Available at: https://.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/06/28/10779607/north-macedonia-faces-energy-crisis-if-no-interconnection-agreement-signed-with-bulgaria/ (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
39. Sidova D. (2019a) ‘Human security and cross-border cooperation’, CONFSEC, 1(5), pp. 54–57.
40. Sidova D. (2019b) ‘Preventsia na detskata I mladezhkata prestupnost chrez transgranichno sutrudnichestvo (po primera na Bulgaria I Rumunia)’, Godishna nauchna konferencia NVU, 5, pp. 250–259.
41. Srbija realno (2022) Vučić: Moja dužnost je briga za Srbiju. Available at: https://.srbijarealno.rs/vucic-moja-duznost-je-briga-za-srbiju/ (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
42. Srbin.info (2022) SAHRAT ĆE SRBIJU – Vučić: Uzet ćemo veliki kredit od SAD-a za energetske projekte. Available at: https://srbin.info/en/politika/sahranice-srbiju-vucic-uzecemo-od-sad-veliki-zajam-za-energetske-projekte/ (Accessed: 16 July 2022).
43. Todorovic I. (2022) Kosovo* may buy stake in gas-fired power plant project in Albania. Available at: https://balkangreenenergynews.com/kosovo-may-buy-stake-in-gas-fired-power-plant-project-in-albania/ (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
44. Topportal (2022) VUČIĆ PROGLASIO POBJEDU, PA PORUČIO: Ogromno hvala građanima! A sad… Nastavljamo da radimo za Srbiju (VIDEO). Available at: https://topportal.info/vucic-proglasio-pobjedu-pa-porucio-ogromno-hvala-gradjanima-a-sad-nastavljamo-da-radimo-za-srbiju-video/ (Accessed: 12 July 2022).
45. Vox (2022) VIDEO / Dinner of “Open Balkan” in Ohrid, Alex Soros at the table with Rama, Abazovic and Vucic. Available at: https://.voxnews.al/english/aktualitet/video-darka-e-open-balkan-ne-oher-alex-soros-ne-tavoline-me-ramen-aba-i10839 (Accessed: 15 July 2022).
46. Vujasin M. (2022) EPCG hires Swiss consultancy for gas power plant projects. Available at: https://balkangreenenergynews.com/epcg-hires-swiss-consultancy-for-gas-power-plant-projects/ (Accessed: 25 August 2022).
47. Yordanova G. (2018) ‘Sovereign debt as emerging challenge of hybrid warfare’, Information & Security: An International Journal, 39(2), pp. 183–194. doi: 10.11610/isij.3916.
48. Yordanova G. (2021) ‘The Hawala system as a typology for terrorist financing’, in Doykov N. (ed.) Crises and security–Correlations and challenges. Vol 1. Sofia: STUME, pp. 174–179.

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-42ffa5f4-aff7-482d-9b61-04d512d3aa1c